21 August 2010

TD6 forms from east Atlantic disturbance...

At 21Z today, the easterly wave that I have been discussing for the last few days near the Cape Verde islands was upgraded to TD6, and the latest estimated intensity is 25kts and 1008mb.  It's southwest of the Cape Verdes now, at about 11N 32W and heading WNW at 8kts.  Given the favorable environmental conditions in its present location and along the forecast track, the storm is expected to develop rather quickly, reaching Tropical Storm intensity early tomorrow and hurricane intensity by Monday afternoon.  Models are in good agreement on the intensification scenario, and on continuing a WNW track for the next few days.  At 5-7 days out, it currently appears that the storm (Danielle is the next name) will recurve into the open Atlantic by 60W.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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