25 August 2010

Danielle maintaining intensity, TD7 forms...

Due to an intrusion of dry air that interrupted the intensification of Danielle, the storm has barely strengthened in the last 24 hours.  The intensity as of 15Z today is 75kts and 982mb.  It appears to be recovering now and should be on another intensification trend.  Model guidance suggests the storm could reach Category 3 status in 2-3 days before it heads too far north and over colder water.
The latest forecast shows Danielle recurving by 62W, not affecting any land.

The easterly wave that exited the African coast on Monday has been upgraded to TD7 today based on satellite presentation.  It's quite well organized and could easily become TS Earl later today.  Models are in very good agreement that this system will develop fairly rapidly, becoming the third hurricane of the season within 2-3 days as it heads WNW.  On that track, is should be just NE of the Leeward Islands by early next week.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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