06 August 2010

Colin still heading over open ocean, two other disturbances getting active...

Colin is still suffering from strong vertical shear, and the tiny low-level circulation has been exposed on the west side of the deep convection.  It has begun to recurve (at 67W) and will now make the journey into the open north Atlantic.  On its way however, it will have an impact on Bermuda, likely bringing tropical storm conditions to the island on Saturday.  The intensity at 15Z today is 40kts and 1007mb... it is forecast to reach 60kts as it makes the extra-tropical transition in a couple days.

The area of disturbed weather I've been mentioning this week in the Caribbean has still not reached land, and is now just north of Honduras and looking surprisingly well-organized.  There are impressive convective bands forming all around a mid-level center, vertical shear is low, but it only has perhaps 12 hours until it hits Belize and the Yucatan peninsula.  There is a slight chance that it could become a Depression prior to landfall.

There is a new easterly wave that is showing some signs of organization located about 600 miles west of the Cape Verde islands.  It's still broad and not very convective, but the forecast is for gradual intensification as it heads northwest.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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