26 August 2010

Danielle and Earl continue to strengthen...

Since yesterday, Danielle has entered a much more favorable environment and is now nearly a Category 3 hurricane with 90kt winds and a 970mb central pressure.  It has also formed a large eye.  It is heading NW as forecast and is still expected to recurve by around 62W, keeping it far from any land, with the exception of Bermuda, which could experience some turbulent weather and seas over the next few days.

Shortly after being classified as a Depression, TD7 was upgraded to TS Earl at 21Z yesterday.  Earl has been struggling a bit with dry air, and remains a small and disorganized system.  The latest intensity estimate is 40kts and 1004mb.  However, it is expected to escape its poor environment shortly and begin a multi-day intensification trend, and many models indicate it will become a major hurricane in 5-6 days.  It's currently located about 750 miles west of the Cape Verde islands.

Another large and relatively well-organized easterly wave exited the African coast yesterday.  In visible satellite imagery, a low-mid-level circulation is evident near 10N 20W (southeast of the Cape Verde islands).  The majority of global forecast models develop this system, so it will likely be the next named storm, Fiona, in a few days.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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