05 August 2010

Colin remnants getting better organized...

Convection has returned to the remnants of Colin, and it seems to be very close to being re-classified as a tropical storm (an aircraft will investigate it later today).  The vertical shear has relaxed a bit to about 25kts, though the low-level center is still exposed on the far western edge of the convection.  It is located 300 miles north of Puerto Rico and moving NW at 15kts.

Many models indicate that the vertical shear is going to relax further and reach a minimum this weekend, perhaps allowing Colin to reach hurricane intensity.  It is also still expected to recurve by 70W and head back out over the open north Atlantic.

The system in the central Caribbean has moved westward and is now located 300 miles southwest of Jamaica.  There is very little evidence of a low-level circulation, and given its rapid movement, it will almost certainly be over central America before it has a chance to develop.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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