20 August 2010

Disturbance off Africa getting better organized...

The easterly wave I mentioned yesterday is now slightly further west than it was, but still generally south of the Cape Verde islands.  The visible satellite imagery reveals a rather well-developed surface and mid-level circulation centered near 11N 26W.  The latest surface analysis indicates a 1008mb Low associated with the disturbance.  It's in (and will remain in) a very favorable environment with low vertical wind shear and 28C SSTs.

In the coming days, it will continue its WNW heading and probably become a Depression, tropical storm, and hurricane this weekend into early next week.  The majority of global forecast models indicate possible recurvature by 60W, which would preclude any landfalls, but it's too soon to be certain about that.  The next name on the list is Danielle.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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