Hints of a first hurricane on the horizon?

As I mentioned in my post on September 11, this hurricane season is already one for the record books, but for a change, it is record quiet! There still has not been a hurricane in the Atlantic... the median date of the first one is August 6, and the record latest first one was September 11.

Well, it's September 16 and there is not even a named storm out there. However, Invest 98L has been lurking east of Bermuda for a few days and at least has the potential to become the next named storm, Fay, but maybe even the first hurricane of the season.

(the name Fay has been in circulation since 2002... it replaced Fran after the 1996 season)

Tidbit: The last time we were using this list of names was 2020 and there had been 20 named storms by now, including 8 hurricanes. In 2020, Fay formed on July 9! What a difference a strong El Niño makes!

Satellite animation of the northwest Atlantic... Invest 98L is the swirl about 500 miles east of Bermuda (the tiny red speck).

The National Hurricane Center is giving it a 30% probability of formation within a week, but that's a safe blend of diverging model guidance.

Invest 98L is currently centered at the yellow X, and the potential area of formation over the next seven days is the yellow "blob". Image from https://www.polarwx.com/tropical/

Some models' ensembles are not too excited about the prospects for this low pressure system, but one that stands out is the Google DeepMind ensemble, which demonstrated exceptional skill in its debut last season and is leading the pack for intensity and is among the leaders for track forecasts in this very sparse season. 

Intensity (left) and track (right) verification for the five short-lived storms so far this season. A variety of deterministic, ensemble, and consensus aides are shown, as well as the National Hurricane Center's forecasts ("OFCL" in red). The Google DeepMind ensemble mean is "GDMI" in brown.

Considering its demonstrated skill, even anecdotally for genesis forecasts, it's worth highlighting here. 

In the morning run, it showed a 46% chance that Invest 98L becomes a tropical storm and the ensemble mean peak intensity was a Category 3 hurricane at 107 kt. That was not the maximum, that was the mean of the 1000 members.

Now, the afternoon run was less bullish with a 19% probability of development, and the average lifetime peak intensity is at 109 kt. From this we can surmise two things: 1) there are competing factors in the atmosphere that the disturbance will be very sensitive to and 2) if it manages to form, the conditions would support impressive intensification.

The forecast track is a bit odd: drifting south for the next 4 or so days, then making an abrupt turn to the north then northeast beyond that (reminiscent of Joaquin in 2015, just displaced northeast). According this current forecast, it would reach its peak intensity near Bermuda in about one week... IF it forms.

Member tracks and ensemble mean from the 1000-member Google DeepMind ensemble. Dots are color-coded by intensity. Image from https://tcatlas.org/realtime_ir.html

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy is down to 6% for the date (4.4/71.9), and losing ground on climatology every day.  No other hurricane season in the satellite era (past 50ish years) has been so inactive... not even close. Even prior to the satellite era when storms were more likely to have been missed, only four years were less active by now: 1941, 1929, 1914, and 1907. It's likely that they were somewhat more active than we know.

ACE through September 16 from 1851-2026. The climatological average by today is shown by the dashed cyan line. The bar for 2026 is shown in yellow, which you can barely see.

Finally, a reminder about the centennial of the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 coming up on Friday the 18th... I posted about that back on August 18 and there's a link in the post to a webpage with lots of historical tidbits and new surface wind maps created by yours truly.

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Record slow hurricane season reaches new milestone

The current record-latest first hurricane formation is September 11. This year has not had any hurricanes yet, and there is nothing on the horizon.  The September 11 date has been met twice: 2002 and 2013. There is a slight nuance to this, however. Prior to the reliable satellite era which began about 50 years ago, some storms and portions of storm lifetimes were certainly missed.

With that in mind, there are two years in the historical records that had zero known hurricanes the entire season: 1907 and 1914. In the satellite era, the fewest number of hurricanes in a season is two, and that happened in 1982 and 2013.

Another metric we commonly look at is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE. Rather than a simple count of storms, it is an integrated quantity that accounts for overall storm intensity and duration. For reference, an average season has about 122 ACE units (the units are 10⁻⁴ kt²) and the climatological average by this date is 60.

The ACE this year is at just 4.4, which is about 7% of average for the date. The last time a season had less ACE than this year was 1941 and a handful of years before that. However, those were all prior to the satellite era.  In the satellite era, this is the slowest start to a hurricane season on record.

The reason for this extremely quiet season is clear: the developing very strong El Niño.  The relationship between El Niño, La Niña, and Atlantic hurricane activity has been well-known for quite some time: El Niño tends to suppress activity and La Niña tends to enhance activity. The developing El Niño is "moderate" as of now, and is forecast to become "very strong" (likely the strongest on record) by later this Fall and into Winter.

Here's a look at ACE values through September 11 during El Niños during the satellite era. For comparison to 2026, I am using the June-July-August RONI value and counting only El Niños of moderate or higher strength (at least 1.0°C):

YEAR      RONI        ACE

1972        +1.1°C        32.2

1987        +1.1°C        17.7

1997        +1.5°C        34.4

2015        +1.3°C        26.6

2026        +1.4°C         4.4

Among its peers, activity across the Atlantic is clearly minimal this year.

We will probably still see lingering impacts of this El Niño on the 2027 Atlantic hurricane season...

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Tropical Depression 5 forms, Dolly dissipates

Since my previous post last Thursday, the tropical Atlantic has been fairly quiet.  Tropical Storm Dolly dissipated into an open wave on Friday morning, just one day after it formed. There's a very slim chance that it redevelops this weekend... more on that at the end. Elsewhere, a disturbance in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico organized into Tropical Depression 5 on Monday afternoon. If it reaches tropical storm intensity, the next name is Edouard.

At 5pm Eastern, TD5 is located just off the central Louisiana coast and is forecast to track northwest toward the Houston area on Tuesday as it slowly intensifies. 

Even if it does briefly reach tropical storm intensity on Tuesday, it has little time before landfall, so flooding rain will be the primary threat. Fortunately, the depression is very small, so impacts such as storm surge and heavy rain are also going to be fairly limited in scope.

The remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly are near the northern coast of Hispaniola and barely discernible. The odds of regeneration have decreased drastically in the past day, but the disturbance will travel toward the Bahamas and then Florida the rest of the week, bringing heavy rain with it.

Looking at where the season stands relative to climatology as we wrap up August, the Accumulated Cyclone Energy is 10% of average. In terms of storm counts, there have been 4 named storms, 0 hurricanes, and 0 major hurricanes. The average by now is 6, 2, and 1.  By any measure, this is an incredibly slow start to a season, and with a strong El Niño developing, Atlantic activity should remain suppressed for the remainder of the season. However, "suppressed" doesn't mean zero... just less than average. We are in the heart of the season and need to remain vigilant. 

In terms of ACE, the hurricane seasons since 1950 that had a slower start than 2026 were 2022, 1988, 1984, 1977, and 1967. 2022 and 1988 were during a La Niña, 1984 was fairly neutral but headed into La Niña. 1977 was a weak El Niño, and 1967 was neutral. So 2026 is the only one among these that is a strong El Niño.

If you're curious if there has ever been a season without any hurricanes, the answer is yes, at least that we know of. In the historical record which extends back to 1851, the only years with no hurricanes were 1914 and 1907.  Inspecting their ENSO phases, 1914 was a strong El Niño and 1907 was neutral.

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