It's experiencing quite a bit of shear, so the low-level center is completely exposed and west of the thunderstorm activity. If it's going to maintain tropical storm status, those will need to come into closer alignment.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the northern Leeward Islands and tropical storm conditions should arrive by Friday evening. Fortunately, due to a combination of some dry air and moderate wind shear, Fiona is not expected to intensify much (if at all) in the next few days. However, it will still bring very heavy rain and the potential for major flash flooding to the islands on Friday into Saturday.
Due to Fiona's current lack of organization and the potential for significant land interactions, the forecast beyond three days is extremely uncertain. So, it will just have to be something we keep an eye on and gradually narrow down the possible scenarios. This map shows an ensemble of ensembles... LOTS of members from four global models... valid in a week from now. One thing to point out that's not shown on this is that the ensemble members that have a weaker storm tend to be the ones that take the storm west, and the stronger members are generally the ones that turn it north. Then there's plenty of room in between.
As I mentioned yesterday, Fiona was introduced to this list in 2010 after Frances was retired in 2004. The previous Fionas in 2010 and 2016 had fairly similar origins to the current one, and neither of them reached hurricane intensity. We'll see what the 2022 version does...
Elsewhere across the basin, things are quiet, so all eyes are on Fiona. Several aircraft from NOAA and the Air Force are on their way to the Caribbean to get positioned for routine flights into and around the storm.
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