A Bittersweet Summary of the Exceptionally Quiet 2026 Hurricane Season

The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially ends on November 30, but the outlook is quiet, so it very likely ended on October 22 this year. Overall, it was an exceptionally inactive season with a single hurricane which was also the single major hurricane.

This post marks the end of my 31st year writing these updates on tropical Atlantic activity.  During that time, I have written approximately 1500 posts spanning 496 tropical cyclones including 229 hurricanes, 108 major hurricanes, 22 Category 5 hurricanes, and 57 retired storm names. As I announced at the end of the 2025 season, I am retiring from writing routine posts for this blog now.

I began writing this blog in the summer of 1996 (prior to starting my junior year of college), and the internet, websites, and data availability looked very different then. I was honored to write for the New York Times' "Eye of the Storm" blog from 2007-2010 and then the Washington Post's "Capital Weather Gang" blog from 2012-2019.

The 1996-2026 period spanned many historic storms and events, and I know that some of you reading this have been following along the entire time -- I sincerely appreciate your steadfast interest.  And to the more recent followers and those who were not yet born when it began, I hope it has provided you with hype-free timely information and useful insights amidst the abundance of options out there now.

Now, on to the summary...

Track map of tropical cyclones during the 2026 hurricane season. Storm tracks are color-coded by intensity, and each storm's preliminary peak intensity, minimum central pressure, and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is listed on the right.

With a developing significant El Niño heading into the season, expectations were set for below-average activity, but even those expectations ended up being too bullish. The season had 10 named storms, 1 hurricane, and 1 major hurricane (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson Scale).  The climatological averages are 14, 7, and 2, so well below average by those counts.

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, is a metric that describes the overall intensity and duration of storms, not tied to a storm count. That ended up at just 16% of average, the lowest since 1983. The biggest contributor by far was Isaias, which made up 37% of the season's tally. Fay came in second place, and between Fay and Isaias, they made up 56% of the season's meager tally.

Of the ten named storms this season, most were brief, weak, and forgettable.  The season started with Tropical Storm Arthur on June 17... that lasted less than a day. Then it was more than a month until the next storm, Bertha, which formed on July 19. Both of those storms lurked along the northern Gulf coast and made landfall.

Cristobal and Dolly were brief blips out in the central Atlantic, then Edouard was the third landfalling tropical cyclone on the U.S. this season on September 1 as a strong tropical storm.

Radar animation of Tropical Storm Edouard making landfall and moving inland on September 1-2. Available at https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/.

The sixth storm, Fay, was the longest-lived storm of the season... it was a named storm for five days, with a dissipated gap in the middle of its life. It was also VERY close to reaching hurricane intensity on the night of September 20-21. The NHC always conducts a post-season reanalysis on all storms to carefully scrutinize all available data when not under time constraints of the operational schedule. It would not be unrealistic if Fay is upgraded to a hurricane, which would of course, alter this season summary slightly.

Below I show two pieces of satellite-based evidence that will be very closely examined for Fay's potential upgrade. The left panel shows a Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) surface wind speed retrieval from 2025 UTC on September 20, and the right panel shows an ASCAT-C scatterometer wind speed retrieval from 2238 UTC, just two hours later. Without going into detail about what these platforms do and their limitations, I'll just point out that they independently suggest that Fay may have been a hurricane at some point -- the scrutiny will be on how reliable those specific hurricane-force wind retrievals are.

Two independent satellite-based retrievals of hurricane-force surface wind speeds in Fay on September 20: Synthetic Aperture Radar (left) and scatterometer (right). Available here (left) and here (right).

Gonzalo and Hanna were the next two storms, and they were both short-lived weak tropical storms... Gonzalo near the Cabo Verde Islands, and Hanna in the remote north-central Atlantic. I'll throw the tenth and last storm, Josephine, into this paragraph too, because it was a brief subtropical storm off the northeast US coast. It formed and dissipated in just over a day, and the final advisory of this hurricane season was issued on the afternoon of October 22.

But, let's back up to the ninth storm, Isaias, to wrap up the discussion of the storms. Isaias was one of those storms that we saw coming a very long time in advance.  It began as Tropical Depression 9 on October 6, but I wrote my first post on it back on September 30, including a track forecast that ended up looking pretty close to what happened.

It formed in the southern Gulf of Mexico and tracked toward the northeast then turned north toward the western Florida panhandle. It reached Category 1 hurricane intensity early on October 8, Category 2 later that day, and Category 3 early on October 9.  That made Isaias not only the first and only hurricane of the season, but the first and only major hurricane of the season.

Enhanced infrared satellite imagery of Category 3 Hurricane Isaias on October 9.

During the relatively reliable satellite era (mid-1960s onward), the latest first hurricane formation was September 11. Even if Fay ends up getting upgraded to a hurricane early on September 21 for example, that would be a new record. But going with the current data we have (Fay not being a hurricane), Isaias became the latest first hurricane formation by an even bigger margin: October 8!

Wind shear and dry air took their tolls on Isaias as it neared the coastline, and it weakened to a lop-sided Category 2 hurricane by the time it make landfall... which is still a powerful and destructive storm. As of now, it is responsible for 9 fatalities and over $2 billion in damage.

Radar animation of Hurricane Isaias making landfall and moving inland on October 9-10. Available at https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/.

It is worth pointing out how rare it is to have just one hurricane in a season. Official records go back to 1851; only two seasons have zero hurricanes (1907 and 1914), and only two other seasons have one hurricane (1905 and 1925).  Every other year has anywhere from 2 to 15 hurricanes.  Prior to the weather satellite era, we know there are missing storms, we just don't know exactly how many are missing. We also know some known tropical storms were probably hurricanes at some point, we just don't know exactly how many or which ones. The historical record is certainly not perfect, but it's much better over the past 50-60 years. So is it possible that 1905, 1907, 1914, and 1925 all had more than one hurricane? Absolutely. At least during the more reliable satellite era, no year had only one hurricane, until now.

Here is a look at the preliminary track and intensity verification statistics for the entire season. I include a variety of models, and a forecast is only evaluated if all entries were present -- a homogeneous verification. Remarkably, because the storms were all so short-lived, there is not a single verifying 120-hour (5-day) forecast this season! And all six verifying 96-hour (4-day) forecasts are from Tropical Storm Fay. So, we're not dealing with a great sample size here to look at model performance, but it's what we've got!

There are a lot of cryptic acronyms here, so I'll break them down into groups. The National Hurricane Center's official forecasts are in red, labeled "OFCL". Then there are five conventional physics-based regional hurricane models, HWRF, HMON, HAFS-A, HAFS-B, and COAMPS-TC. Then we have the conventional physics-based American global model ("AVNI"), and its ensemble mean forecast ("AEMI"). The next two ("TVCN" and "HCCA") are consensus aides, so not really models by themselves, but tuned combinations of other models. Last but certainly not least is the Google DeepMind AI model ("GDMI").

Clearly, the DeepMind AI model was the most skillful model overall for track... even the NHC's forecasts were less accurate which is not common. That same model dominated the track guidance last season too. There is no doubt that AI models are rapidly changing the tropical cyclone forecasting scene.

For intensity, the list is nearly identical, but I swapped out the two global model entries and replaced them with routine statistical-dynamical models ("DSHP" and "LGEM"). Those models were designed for intensity guidance and were introduced 26 and 20 years ago.  Because of their relatively course resolution, global models are historically not used for intensity guidance. And IVCN is an intensity consensus aide, similar to TVCN for track.

Here the outcome is more muddled. The low number of cases make these charts pretty noisy, but that's what we get in a quiet season. It's easy to see the two consensus aides standing out with low errors overall, and the Google DeepMind model is impressive here again, though not as clear of a leader.

September 18 was the 100th anniversary of the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, and there was quite a lot of special coverage of that centennial across television, social media, and regular online media. I wrote a brief post on August 18, a month ahead of the anniversary, to introduce my new reconstruction of the surface wind field over the storm's lifetime. There's a webpage with lots more detail and maps at https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/miami26/, but here's an example:

I will end this post with a bit of personal nostalgia: the season that started this long journey, 1996. Sadly, my emails/posts from 1996-2001 have been lost to time, and I only have the season summaries from 1998-2001. I'm a digital packrat, so it annoys me terribly that I no longer have those.

First is a seasonal track map, made in the same fashion as the current one at the top of the post. You'll recognize a few of the same names that are still in use on this year's list.

I also have a stack of printed infrared satellite image hardcopies from The Weather Channel; here's a photo of one from October 17 showing Hurricane Lili heading for Cuba... who else remembers these? If you were watching Tropical Updates at :50 on TWC in 1996, you may also remember John Hope, Stu Ostro, Brad Edwards, Dave Schwartz, Jim Cantore, Mike Seidel, Jeff Morrow, and so many others. Some have passed on, and some are still in the business!

Three storm names were retired after the 1996 season: Cesar, Fran, and Hortense; they were replaced with Cristobal, Fay, and Hanna for the 2002 season, and all three were just used again in 2026 and will be back in 2032. [see How do storm names get retired?]

Another fun historical tidbit: six years into this blog, the NHC began using the "cone of uncertainty"... here's my post from July 15, 2002 that mentioned it. There are several good nuggets among the posts in the archive, you just have to hunt for them.

Looking ahead, I may use this blog and the mailing list occasionally, but just not for the quasi-daily updates of current activity that you've gotten for the past three decades. If anyone is interested in writing as a guest blogger on a specific relevant topic, let's talk!

Again, thank you all for your interest and support over the years, it definitely kept me motivated!

• Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.
• Subscribe to get these updates emailed to you.
• Follow me on Bluesky

Isaias makes landfall after quick shot up to major hurricane

From Thursday morning through Friday morning, Isaias rapidly intensified and became the first major hurricane of the season, which is conventionally defined to be Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson Scale.  In terms of exact values, the wind speed increased from 75 knots to 105 knots in a 24-hour period, just barely meeting the criteria to count as RI.

Then just as it was approaching the coastline for landfall, it weakened slightly to a 90-knot Category 2 hurricane.  Radar and satellite data showed the eyewall quickly deteriorating as wind shear finally took its toll.

https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/ 

This is thankfully in stark contrast to what we witnessed eight years ago today when Michael rapidly intensified to a Category 5 hurricane right up to landfall just 70 miles east of where Isaias just made landfall.  That radar animation is shown below for reference:

Radar animation of Category 5 Hurricane Michael on October 10, 2018. https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/ 

Isaias is no longer a tropical cyclone, but rain associated with it continues into the southeast U.S. over the next couple of days.

I plotted up some preliminary track and intensity forecast verification for Isaias. For track, the Google Deepmind ensemble mean (GDMI) was by far the leading model guidance... it left the other conventional guidance in the dust. The National Hurricane Center's forecasts (OFCL) closely followed that AI guidance and ended up doing quite well.

For intensity, it's not as clear-cut. Overall, the NHC (OFCL) has the lowest errors, then the Navy's COAMPS-TC hurricane model (CTCI) did quite well.  NOAA's flagship hurricane model, HWRF (HWFI), did really well at the important 2-3-day lead times. The Google Deepmind ensemble (GDMI) does not stand out too much in this category for this storm.

The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) has jumped up to about 17% of average for the date, as I eluded to in Wednesday's post.

There is still nothing else on the foreseeable horizon, but if and when the tenth storm comes comes around, the next name on this year's list Josephine.

• Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.
• Subscribe to get these updates emailed to you.
• Follow me on Bluesky

Intensifying Hurricane Isaias to make landfall Friday night

Since my previous post on Wednesday, Isaias did indeed become the first hurricane of the season on October 8. Related to that, I shared this on Bluesky: "During the satellite era (I'm using 1966), that is BY FAR the latest... by 27 days! It's an incredible 63 days after the median date."

Now, on Friday morning, Isaias is nearly a Category 3 hurricane and will likely reach that intensity at the 11am EDT advisory. The first sunrise satellite image of it today (at the top of the post) shows a clearing eye as the powerful hurricane heads north... the infrared satellite animation below shows the evolution over the previous 8 hours.

The NHC's forecast map shows the track forecast cone with the hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings. Note how far inland these wind impacts extend. It takes some time for the hurricane's strong winds to decay after landfall. The storm is expected to weaken slightly prior to reaching the coast, so the peak intensity will likely be midday Friday, but that will be a small difference.

Landfall will be somewhere right around midnight close to Pensacola FL. Impacts extend very far from the landfall point of course. Here is this morning's suite of HTI (Hurricane Threats and Impacts) graphics from the NWS:

I also have a long regional updating radar loop available at https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/... the version as of this writing is shown below, where the inner core of the hurricane is barely in radar range yet, but stay tuned throughout the day and into tonight as the loop builds.

I am still quite amazed at the lead time we've had in watching this storm take shape, and the accuracy of very long-range model output, particularly from Google Deepmind. My post from September 30 --10 days ago-- serves as a good documentation of this: Eyes shift to southern Gulf of Mexico for next potential storm. Certainly can't say it took anyone by surprise!

Aside from Isaias, no new activity is on the horizon, so I'll update the seasonal ACE and put together some updated preliminary forecast verification stats shortly.

• Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.
• Subscribe to get these updates emailed to you.
• Follow me on Bluesky

Tropical Storm Isaias likely to become first hurricane of the season

The area of concern I mentioned in last Wednesday's post was upgraded to Tropical Depression 9 on Tuesday afternoon and then to Tropical Storm Isaias on Wednesday morning. There is high confidence that it will intensify in the central Gulf of Mexico and become the first hurricane of the 2026 Atlantic season, nearly one month later than the previous record-latest first hurricane formation, which was September 11.

The official forecast from early Wednesday morning brings Isaias up to a borderline Category 2-3 hurricane in the central Gulf, then shows some weakening prior to landfall overnight on Friday, likely between New Orleans LA and Panama City FL.  Tropical storm force winds should arrive along the north-central Gulf coast on Friday evening.

Rainfall and storm surge impacts will be noticeably more severe for places to the right of the track... for example, roughly Mobile to Tampa. Storm surge guidance isn't available yet, but stay closely tuned to the NHC webpage for the latest... storm surge will likely be fairly significant.

The storm will also be moving rather quickly by the time it makes landfall, so the wind impacts will also be carried further inland than "normal", again, primarily to the right of the track.

I brought this up in my annual "cone" refresher post, but remember that the intensity forecast also contains uncertainty, just like the track does. You can see the track forecast cone above, but here's my take on the intensity forecast cone, as of Wednesday morning's Advisory #3. The cone is based on NHC's intensity forecast errors over the previous five seasons.

With an active tropical storm (and likely hurricane soon), the Accumulated Cyclone Energy will get its biggest boost of the entire season by far.  As of today, it's at about 11% of average, but the next 3 days could nudge that up to approximately 16-20% of average.

Some name history: Isaias (pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs) was first introduced to List 6 (the one we're using this year) in 2014... it replaced Ike after the 2008 season. In 2014 however, the name never got used because the very quiet season ended with Hanna. It was used in 2020 and now in 2026. It most likely will not get retired this year, so we'll see it again in 2032.

• Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.
• Subscribe to get these updates emailed to you.
• Follow me on Bluesky

Eyes still on southern Gulf of Mexico for next potential storm

I chose the title of this post to mimic the one from last Wednesday, because that post hardly needs any updating today! The area I highlighted six days ago is coming together... it's currently tagged as Invest 92L but is close to becoming the season's 9th named storm, Isaias. As of Tuesday morning, it's located in the far western Gulf of Mexico and has had a significant flare-up of strong thunderstorm activity over the center.

And, as mentioned last Wednesday, if it forms, it has good odds of becoming the season's first hurricane. Recall that within the past century and within the more reliable satellite era (mid-1970s), the record-latest first hurricane formed on September 11. Will 2026 finally get its first hurricane this week? If not, the chances start dropping off quickly in the final six weeks of the season.

The tracks shown below are from the operational (left) and experimental (right) Google Deepmind ensemble. They provide some confidence in a track forecast because there is so little spread among the members. But the majority of them are also quite bullish on the intensity. Even in the 1000-member version of the ensemble (not shown), this has a roughly 70% chance of becoming a hurricane.

https://www.weathernerds.org/models/fnv3.html

Among the ensemble and deterministic models, the timing of landfall is fairly tight around Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. However, the intensity at landfall is another story... very little agreement among models with an enormous range from tropical depression to Category 3 hurricane.

It does not appear that time, moisture, or water temperature will hinder the storm's potential for substantial development, but wind shear probably will. The current wind shear in the western Gulf is moderate and the forecast wind shear in the northern Gulf is substantial, so even if the system does develop in the next couple of days, its final day or two should be greeted by a wall of strong vertical wind shear which would weaken it. With that in mind, the intensity forecasts shown above that indicate a peak intensity in the 48-72-hour window followed by weakening seem more likely to me.

A feature that could play a role in the storm's evolution at the end of the week is an anticyclonic warm eddy in the central Gulf. There is deep warm water there that could provide a temporary boost to a system which should be beginning its battle against increasing wind shear.

https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/sectors/

The sea surface temperature under Invest 92L is currently about 31°C and will only decrease to about 29°C as it approaches the Gulf coast -- all plenty warm to sustain a hurricane of any intensity.

https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/sectors/

• Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.
• Subscribe to get these updates emailed to you.
• Follow me on Bluesky

Eyes shift to southern Gulf of Mexico for next potential storm

Fay and Hanna have dissipated, and the Atlantic will be quiet for a week or so, then the long-range models begin hinting at something brewing in the Bay of Campeche in the southern Gulf of Mexico. If this ends up developing into the ninth named storm, the next name on the list is Isaias. But it's a looong way off.

As of the Wednesday morning cycle, the 1000-member Google Deepmind ensemble gives this a 27% chance of becoming a tropical storm late next week, and of those members, they show a 60% chance of it becoming the season's first hurricane and even a 22% chance of reaching major hurricane intensity (Cat3+). Other AI and conventional ensembles agree with a decent chance of something forming here in 7-10 days. There's a LOT of uncertainty of course, but the signal in the models is there.

Image from https://tcatlas.org/realtime_ir.html

This area is not as favored for development in early October.as one might think, at least for storms that eventually reach hurricane intensity. The last one that did so was Milton in 2024, then Roxanne in 1995, then Fern in 1967. It's a very short list.

Just for curiosity's sake, I ran some preliminary homogeneous track and intensity verification statistics on the meager activity so far this season. This covers Arthur through Hanna, and you can see on the charts that there are actually ZERO 5-day (120-hour) verification times, but it's what we've got. All six of the 4-day (96-hour) verifying forecasts come from Fay.

For track, the Google Deepmind ensemble mean (GDMI) leads the pack overall, then it gets a bit more noisy. The National Hurricane Center's forecasts (OFCL) were very closely aligned with GDMI except for the six forecasts for Fay when the model was superior.

For intensity, it's definitely a mixed bag, but the thing I see is the two consensus aides, HCCA and IVCN, did the best overall. The Google Deepmind ensemble mean was quite good too, but lost a little bit of ground on the 4-day forecasts of Fay. Also worth noting is that the HWRF hurricane model (HWFI) beat the NHC's average forecast error at every lead time -- none of the other hurricane models did that (HMNI, HFAI, HFBI, CTCI).

• Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.
• Subscribe to get these updates emailed to you.
• Follow me on Bluesky

Fay lingers, Gonzalo dissipates, Hanna forms

The title of the post makes it sounds like there is a lot of activity.  There isn't.

Fay is a stubborn tropical depression that isn't strengthening or weakening, Gonzalo dissipated about 1.5 days after it formed, and Hanna formed on Monday morning in the north-central Atlantic. It too is forecast to dissipate within a couple of days.

Image from https://www.polarwx.com/tropical/

There is no hint of real activity in the long-range models, so we will likely make it well into October without a single hurricane, and then the odds start dwindling quickly if the Caribbean is shut down due to the El Niño-induced strong vertical wind shear there.

It would be unprecedented in the satellite era and even in the past century to have a hurricane season with no hurricanes. In the past century (1926-2025) the fewest number of hurricanes in a season is two, and that happened in 1930, 1982, and 2013. Among those three years, only 1982 and 2013 were during the more reliable satellite era. So even if this season manages to crank out a single hurricane, it would still be a record.

Just to provide some additional context, the record number of hurricanes in a season is 15, and the average is 7. Today is actually the climatological date of the 5th hurricane formation.

The track map through today is shown below, keeping in mind that Fay and Hanna are still active tropical cyclones... barely.

Whenever the next storm forms, the next name on the list is Isaias. In 2020, the last time this list of names was used, Isaias formed on July 30.

• Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.
• Subscribe to get these updates emailed to you.
• Follow me on Bluesky

September will end and still no hurricane this season

There's not too much to report in this post, so it will be brief. Fay is a dissipating tropical depression, and since my last post on Thursday, Gonzalo formed and dissipated near Cabo Verde.

12-hour infrared satellite animation from September 26.

Gonzalo was the 7th named storm of the season, though it only lasted for two days. In fact, there have been named storms for a TOTAL of 13.25 "named storm days" this season, which is 27% of average for the date.

Amazingly, the hurricane drought continues with nothing in the foreseeable future.  No hurricane season has gotten this far along without a hurricane in the past century, and during the more reliable satellite era (mid-1970s), the previous record latest first hurricane formation was September 11.

With both Fay and Gonzalo active as tropical storms on September 25, it became the most active day of the entire season so far, in terms of both named storm activity and Accumulated Cyclone Energy. The ACE is up to 10.4% of average for the date. If nothing forms in the meantime, it will slip to 9% of average on October 8.

Looks like I picked an easy year as my final year for writing this blog!

• Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.
• Subscribe to get these updates emailed to you.
• Follow me on Bluesky

Still watching Fay, and Gonzalo could be on the near horizon

Two features of interest in this post: Tropical Storm Fay and Invest 90L -- which has a shot as becoming the next named storm, Gonzalo.

Since my previous post on Monday, Fay actually dissipated on Tuesday afternoon and then regenerated on Wednesday afternoon. It's currently a tropical storm located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores and moving slowly toward the west. It could intensify slightly today, but is not expected to get close to hurricane intensity, before it starts weakening again.

Fay is expected to dissipate, again, on Saturday. We'll see if it sticks this time.

Elsewhere, Invest 90L is the wave I discussed in Monday's post. It is currently just barely off the African coast, southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands and is forecast to move toward the northwest in the coming days.

In a normal year, these large robust tropical waves would be cause for potential concern in 10-14 days on the other side of the Atlantic basin, but this is not one of those years, thanks to the developing very strong El Niño which has suppressed activity across the deep tropics so far this season.

This has pretty decent model support to develop into the next named storm, Gonzalo, rather soon. After that, dry air and vertical wind shear will start to impact it and it could dissipate later in the weekend. There is no model support for it reaching hurricane intensity, which means the record hurricane drought in the Atlantic continues.

Fay's resurgence has nudged the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) up to 8% of average for the date... still a record-low value for this point in the season by a big margin during the reliable satellite era (mid-1970s).  Prior to the satellite era when some activity was certainly missed, only three years were lower: 1914, 1907, and 1905.

  

• Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.
• Subscribe to get these updates emailed to you.
• Follow me on Bluesky