25 September 2003

TD15 forms near Bermuda...

Over the past few days, there have been three areas of interest in the
Atlantic.  One in the deep tropics east of the Cape Verdes, one in the
western Caribbean, and one south of Bermuda.  As the headline suggests,
the area south of Bermuda is the one that developed first, and became
the 15th depression of the season today.

At 15Z, TD15 formed at 29.5N 61.0W and heading NE at 6kts.  Intensity is
estimated at 30kts and 1006mb.  Given favorable conditions, it is
expected to quickly reach TS status, but probably not make it to
hurricane strength.  Its name will be Juan when it does get named.  The
track forecast is basically due north, zipping east of Bermuda then up
to Nova Scotia.

Elsewhere, the area of disturbed weather east of the Lesser Antilles is
indeed getting better organized and is a rather large circulation. 
Located at about 12N 37W, it's tracking W at 12kts.  This could become
TD16 in the next day or two... SST is 28C+ and the vertical shear is
fairly low (next name on deck is Kate, assuming TD15 becomes Juan).  The
western Caribbean disturbance is still not looking very organized, but
conditions are improving for development.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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