08 September 2003

Fabian becomes extratropical, Henri still barely hanging on, Isabel becomes major hurricane, TD14 forms in far east Atlantic...

Although still packing hurricane-force winds, Fabian has enough
extratropical characteristics to officially drop him as a tropical
cyclone.  These include a lack of centralized deep convection, cold-core
aloft, and a front extending southward from the Low.  He will remain a
very powerful extratropical cyclone in the north central Atlantic, and
influencing Greenland, Iceland, and major shipping lanes.  The last
advisory placed him at 49.8N 39.2W and zipping off to the NE at 34kts. 
Intensity was estimated at 65kts and 980mb.  Fabian accumulated 11 Named
Storm Days, 10 Hurricane Days, and 6.5 Intense Hurricane Days.

TD Henri is very disorganized, yet refuses to dissipate.  Shear from an
advancing frontal boundary will soon destroy the system and it will
merge with the front.  At 15Z, TD Henri was located at 32.7N 75.6W and
moving NE at 7kts.  Winds are 30kts and the MSLP is 1006mb.  I suspect
any mention of him tomorrow will be in the form of an obituary.

Hurricane Isabel continues to rapidly intensify, and is now the second
major hurricane of the season.  She reached CAT3 status at 15Z today at
17.2N 42.6W.  This is VERY far east to reach major hurricane status, and
she is forecast to reach CAT4 status by this evening.  The MSLP fell
25mb in the previous 24 hour period, and 43mb in the past 48 hours. 
Intensity as of 15Z was 100kts and 962mb.  The track forecast will take
her just north of the Lesser Antilles by the weekend.  Considering the
location, motion, and intensity, the number of Intense Hurricane Days
this season could easily be doubled by Isabel. (as an aside, the average
number of IHD is 4.7; in 2002 there were 2.5, this year we could hit

At 15Z today, the tropical wave I first mentioned on Saturday has been
upgraded to TD14... the amazing part is how far EAST it made this step! 
It was located at 11.8N 22.1W and drifting W at 3kts.  22.1W is still
east of the Cape Verde Islands!!  Notice however, that both Isabel and
TD14 were nearly stalled as they exited Africa, giving them time to
fester before heading west; this gives them the edge on developing
abnormally far east.  It is expected to become TS Juan later today, but
the track will most likely not follow Fabian and Isabel, but rather
recurve early, perhaps by 40W.  He could become a hurricane by mid-week,
not affecting any land.

Remember, September 10 is the climatological peak of the entire season,
with a sharp increase in activity as we approach that date, so this
queue of 3 named storms we've been maintaining is helping to reinforce
the climatological records!

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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