03 September 2003

Fabian still maintaining intensity...

As of 15Z today, Hurricane Fabian was located at 22.4N 62.7W and
tracking NW at 8kts.  Maximum sustained winds are 115kts and the MSLP is
945mb.  The forecast is for very gradual weakening and a recurve close
to Bermuda.  It is likely that Bermuda will experience the worst part of
the storm Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning.

During the night, it appears that the storm underwent an eyewall
replacement cycle.  A clear eye was distorted/missing for several hours
and now the eye that's present is noticeably larger.  It's very common
for intense hurricanes to undergo these eyewall replacement cycles; it's
merely the storm's way of reorganizing itself to maximize efficiency
(smart little critters).  The new eye is about 30 nautical miles in
diameter (55km) rather than the 20nm eye it had yesterday.

The area of disturbed weather I mentioned near the Yucatan is now in the
eastern Gulf and although not terribly well organized at the moment,
conditions are favorable so it's still an area of interest.

The easterly wave near the Cape Verde Islands continues to slowly get
better organized and is presently at about 12N 23W.  It has a 1008mb Low
embedded in it.  There's also an easterly wave to its west at about 14N
35W which is tracking W at 5kts.  These two are close enough to possibly
merge into a single vorticity center, as some computer models indicate.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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