07 September 2003

Fabian STILL a hurricane, Henri nearly a TS again, Isabel now a hurricane, tropical wave nearing Depression status...

Fabian is now at 11 Named Storm Days (as well as 10 Hurricane Days and 6.5
Intense Hurricane Days) and is still a tropical cyclone, but the extratropical
transition is beginning as evident by a frontal structure forming on the
southeast end of the Low.  This will almost certainly be the last update with
Fabian as a hurricane, and the last with him as a purely tropical system.  At
21Z, Hurricane Fabian was at 43.4N 49.3W and tracking NE at 27kts (the forward
speed is due to the impeding trough).  Winds are still 75kts and the central
pressure is up to 972mb.  Toward the middle part of this week, Fabian could make
a powerful impact on southern Greenland.

TD Henri has made very little progess over the past 24 hours, and is still very
disorganized.  The official forecast calls for him reach TS status again, but
shear could hinder that from ever happening.  The 21Z position and intensity are
31.6N 77.6W and 30kts.  He should keep heading NE away from the US mainland.

Isabel has very rapidly organized and is now a hurricane.  The MSLP fell 18mb in
the 24 hours ending at 15Z today.  As of 21Z she was at 15.2N 39.1W and tracking
WNW at 13kts.  Maximum sustained winds have increased to 70kts and the MSLP has
fallen to 984mb.  The forecast is for continued strengthening, becoming a major
hurricane by Tuesday afternoon, and the track should closely follow in Fabian's
footsteps when he was near the Lesser Antilles.  She does have an eye and
sustained cloud tops colder than -70C, along with symmetric outflow.

The easterly wave in the east Atlantic I've been mentioning is getting better
organized every day and appears to be very close to becoming a Depression.  The
1010mb Low is located at approx 12N 22W and drifting slowly W at 5kts, much like
Isabel did (notice how far east this is though!!).  There is an elongated
surface circulation as seen by SeaWinds, and persistent deep convection, and a
more symmetric mid-level circulation.  This could become TD14 today or tomorrow,
then TS Juan either tomorrow or Tuesday.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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