01 September 2003

Fabian becomes first major hurricane of the season, western Caribbean looking very interesting...

During the past week, three new systems formed, TD9-TD11.  TD9 was short-lived
and disorganized as it passed south of Puerto Rico and Haiti on Aug 21-22.

On Aug 27, TD10 formed way out at 32W in the deep tropics, and was in fact a
very impressive eaterly wave that had previously trekked across Africa.  A mere
72 hours later, it was a major hurricane, Fabian.  During peak intensification
on the 30th, the MSLP fell 24mb in just 12 hours and reached a low of 940mb at
03Z on Sep 1.  As of 15Z today, Hurricane Fabian was located at 18.9N 56.8W and
tracking W at 10kts.  Intensity is 120kts and 949mb and is forecast to maintain
this intensity or weaken a bit over the next few days.  The eye is very small at
only 15 nautical miles in diameter, so perhaps an eyewall cycle will occur later
today.  The forecast track takes him generally WNW to NW, and by the weekend,
should begin recurvature well east of the US mainland.

Also in my absence, TD11 formed in the Gulf and became TS Grace, who made
landfall on the central TX coast on the morning of Aug 31.

A large area of disturbed weather is also brewing in the far west Caribbean Sea,
just east of the Yucatan Peninsula.  Conditions appear favorable for slow
development and it could become TD12 within a day or two.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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