06 September 2003

Fabian hit Bermuda, Henri hit Florida, TS Isabel forms in the deep tropics...

Fabian made nearly a direct hit on Bermuda Friday afternoon at about 5pm EDT as
a strong CAT3 hurricane.  The center actually passed just west of them, giving
the tiny island the worst possible conditions for the longest possible time. 
Preliminary reports indicate widespread damage and four deaths.  As of 21Z
today, Hurricane Fabian is still very strong at 95kts and 960mb.  He was located
at 37.5N 59.3W and tracking NE at 20kts.  He is not forecast to begin the
extratropical transition until Monday morning, giving him more time to rack up
Named Storm Days and Hurricane Days.  He ended up accumulating 6.5 Intense
Hurricane Days.

TS Henri made landfall near Tampa, FL Friday afternoon (9/5) at about 7pm EDT as
a disorganized Tropical Depression, but has since exited the peninsula and is
back over open water... forecast to reintensify to a minimal TS again.  The
satellite presentation was very poor on Friday evening, but is slowly getting
better organized.  As of 21Z, he was at 29.4N 79.7W (80mi east of Daytona Beach)
and tracking ENE at 15kts.  Maximum sustained winds are 30kts and the MSLP is

At 09Z today, the tropical wave I've been mentioning since this past Tuesday was
upgraded directly to Tropical Storm Isabel, the 9th named storm of the season. 
In contrast to Henri, Isabel's satellite presentation is remarkable.  She was
located at 13.4N 35.4W as of 21Z today.  Intensity was 45kts and 1000mb.  The
NHC forecast is for continued strengthening, reaching hurricane status by Monday
morning, and tracking toward the northern Lesser Antilles later this week.

Elsewhere, a new and impressive tropical wave has just exited the African coast
and is presently at about 12N 20W and tracking W at 7kts.  Given the favorable
conditions and present appearance, it seems likely this 1010mb Low will organize
and become TD14/Juan in the near future.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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