17 July 2003

TD5 becomes TS Danny...

The Tropical Depression east of Bermuda has gotten much better organized
(quicker than forecast) and was made the fourth named storm of the
season at 03Z today.

At 15Z today, TS Danny was located at 34.9N 56.7W and tracking NNW at
11kts.  Maximum sustained winds are 55kts and the MSLP is 1010mb (again,
remember the ambient pressure is presently in the low 1020's at that
latitude).  The cyclone is over 26C water and minimal shear, which has
allowed him to intensify, and this trend is expected to continue,
possibly becoming a hurricane by Friday morning.  It looks like an eye
could form very soon, and the banding features are quite impressive.  He
will not threaten any land, as he continues the long curve around the
periphery of the Bermuda High.

Elsewhere, a significant tropical wave is making its way across the
eastern Atlantic, presently at about 9N 35W.  It has a 1014mb Low
embedded in it, and is in 15kts of easterly shear and over 27.5C water. 
It will be watched for development, although the vast majority of models
do not develop it.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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