08 July 2003

Organization in the central Caribbean...

Over the past few days, I've been watching a tropical wave move across
the central tropical Atlantic, and just recently it has taken on a much
more organized appearance, including a spiral band and cooling CDO.

Presently located at about 15N 69W, it's racing westward at 26kts.  The
steering flow leaves it few options but to continue heading west, then
perhaps bending slightly north as it nears the Mexico/Texas coast. 
Despite the impressive satellite presentation, aircraft recon into the
storm was unable to find a closed circulation.  Keep in mind the forward
motion of 26kts would require at least 26kt winds around the Low in
order to close the circulation.

The environment is favorable for development in terms of shear and SST,
but there is a very dry Saharan Air Layer just to its west that's been
tailgating it for a while.  It if can avoid ingesting that air,
development should be quick to occur.

Check out http://www.mcwar.org/gallery/tropics/tropics.html for the
latest satellite imagery and updates on this disturbance.  It would
become TD4 or TS Claudette.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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