21 July 2003

Danny dissipates, TD6 neary a Tropical Storm...

At 21Z Sunday, the last advisory was written on Danny, as his path over
cool waters killed off all convection.  The low-level circulation is
still evident and easily found at about 37N 36W.  He is indeed orbiting
around the subtropical High; an ellipse approximately 700 miles N-S by
1100 miles E-W should be completed by the weekend.  Regeneration is not
impossible by later in the week, but unlikely.

TD6 suffered a brief hiccup in intensification Sunday evening when the
deep convection nearly ceased.  Then it made a comeback and is once
again on the intensifying trend.  At 15Z today, TD6 was located at 14.2N
58.8W and tracking W at 20kts.  Intensity is estimated at 30kts and
1009mb.  Although the SSTs and heat content are quite favorable in the
Caribbean, the vertical wind shear will be westerly at 20-25kts, so any
development should be slow.  A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the
US Virgin Islands, St. Lucia (south of Martinique), and Puerto Rico, and
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Dominica (north of
Martinique).  It will very soon pass over Martinique in the Windward
Islands, then is expected to graze southern Hispaniola and Cuba.  Their
mountainous terrain could limit development for the next couple days,
although a hurricane is not out of the question if it tracks just a bit
further south than forecast.  Beyond that, it's expected to enter the
eastern Gulf where it must be watched much more closely.

As an aside, I checked the track history and if I'm not mistaken, the
last time there were three Atlantic hurricanes during July was 1966
(Becky, Celia, and Dorothy).  So if TD6 makes it to Hurricane Erika by
the end of the month, we can update that record! (also, 7 of the 11
named storms in 1966 made it to hurricane, and if TD6 goes to hurricane,
this season will be at 3 out of 5 so far)

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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