20 July 2003

Danny became a hurricane, TD6 forms...

At 21Z Friday, Danny was upgraded to a hurricane with a MSLP of 1006mb.  After
some record searching by several people, this is apparently the highest pressure
at which an Atlantic cyclone transitioned to a hurricane.  Emily '93 was 1004mb
and Bob '85 was 1003mb.  Since then, he has entered cooler waters and is back to
a Tropical Storm again, forecast to continue weakening.  At 15Z today, TS Danny
was located at 41.6N 40.0W and tracking ESE at 14kts.  Intensity is 35kts and
1008mb.  Although not expected to remain a defined tropical system, the
circulation is forecast to continue circling around the Bermuda High, eventually
heading S then SW.

At 21Z Saturday, TD6 formed from the disturbance I had mentioned in the central
deep tropics, east of the Lesser Antilles.  It continues to organize and is
forecast to reach Tropical Storm status later tonight or Monday morning.  As of
15Z today, TD6 is at 13.0N 50.4W and heading W at 20kts.  Winds are 30kts and
the MSLP is 1008mb.  It has the potential to become the third hurricane by
mid-week.  Once named, this storm will be Erika.  The forecast track takes it
across the central Lesser Antilles, then skimming just south of Dominican
Republic, Haiti, and Cuba, entering the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the week. 
Conditions are favorable for this to develop.

So far, 2003 is on par to match the record seasons of 1933 and 1995, since we
are nearing the 5th named storm and it's not August yet.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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