15 August 2021

What a difference a day makes


Since yesterday, Fred has redeveloped into a tropical storm and is strengthening, while Grace has been downgraded to a tropical depression before reaching Hispaniola.  Nature can be full of surprises sometimes.

So, I'll start today's post off with Fred.  Once over the eastern Gulf of Mexico it quickly regained lots of thunderstorm activity around the center and was re-classified as a tropical storm on Sunday morning.    It will reach the north-central Gulf coast on Monday afternoon, where tropical storm and storm surge warnings are in effect. As of 5pm EDT, maximum sustained winds were up to 45 mph and some additional strengthening is expected before it makes landfall.


Grace has remained weak and disorganized, which means it's taking the more southern option that I presented yesterday.  It's following closely in Fred's footsteps so far.  It has failed to consolidate around a center, and is about to head into or very near mountainous Hispaniola. 


Given the complexity of such a messy storm near land, it's hard to have too much confidence in the latest forecasts.  Model intensity forecasts in five days range from dissipation to almost a Category 5 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.  So for now, the one thing that's clear is that rain will be the usual problem in the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba in the next 2-3 days. Anything beyond that will depend on its fate after the Hispaniola encounter.

For those keeping tabs on the ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) to-date, 2021 is now at about 113% of average, using 1971-2020 as the baseline. With minimal contributions being made by the current storms, the season will likely fall below average for the first time all year by mid-late week.


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