Fred hits Florida, Grace strengthens, Henri forms

Infrared satellite image from Tuesday morning with the forecast track and "cones of uncertainty" for Fred (blue), Grace (red), and Henri (green).

Tropical Storm Fred intensified prior to making landfall on the Florida Panhandle east of Panama City on Monday afternoon, but only up to a mid-range tropical storm... fortunately it wasn't worse because that's right about where Category 5 Hurricane Michael hit in 2018. It is now tracking inland, centered over Georgia, but will bring rain from that area up into PA and NY by later in the week.

Radar animation of Tropical Storm Fred making its third and final landfall... just east of Panama City, FL. This and other loops are available at http://bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/radar/.

Grace tracked just barely south of Hispaniola as a disorganized tropical depression, but keeping its center over very warm water. It's now about to pass over Jamaica and has regained tropical storm intensity for the first time since Sunday morning. As of Tuesday morning, Grace was centered between Jamaica and the tip of Haiti's Tiburon Peninsula with peak sustained winds of 45 mph. Strong thunderstorms are bubbling around the center and it looks poised to intensify.

The ocean ahead of it is extremely favorable for tropical cyclones -- very deep and very warm water (high values of Ocean Heat Content) from Grace's current position over to the Yucatan Peninsula. This, combined with fairly low vertical wind shear, could allow Grace to become the season's second hurricane in the next couple of days.

There is a hurricane watch in effect for the northeastern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, along with the tropical storm watches and warnings in Haiti, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Cayman Islands. Grace will weaken once over the Yucatan Peninsula on Thursday, but will very likely re-intensify over the southern Gulf of Mexico on Friday. 

And finally, Tropical Storm Henri formed near Bermuda on Monday, becoming the season's eighth named storm... yes,it's Henri the 8th.  In the reliable satellite era of the past 55 years or so, only two other seasons had the 8th named storm form so early: 2020 and 2005, so this is exceptional. Henri is forecast to make a loop around Bermuda over the next several days, but not strengthen much.

Elsewhere, the basin is quiet, but when the time comes, the next name on the list is Ida.

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