Even after spending a full day over very warm water north of Haiti and eastern Cuba, Tropical Depression Fred failed to reorganize, and as of Friday morning, the low-level center is drifting inland over central Cuba. However, there is a LOT of strong thunderstorm activity associated with the storm's mid-level circulation to the south and east of the surface center.
Despite this sloppy structure, there is still a lot of moisture associated with it, and that will continue to bring heavy rain to Cuba, and soon to Florida too. The outlook for the next few days indicates a threat of extremely heavy rain which will inevitably result in widespread flooding.
There is essentially no model guidance now that suggests that Fred will be a wind or surge threat for anyone, so attention can be focused on the flooding threat. South Florida (the Keys) is under a tropical storm warning.
Now, shifting our attention about 1900 miles to the southeast, Invest 95L is really close to becoming the next tropical cyclone. NHC just transitioned it to Potential Tropical Cyclone 7, so that tropical storm watches could be issued for parts of the Leeward Islands. If this becomes a tropical cyclone, it would be Tropical Depression 7, then Tropical Storm Grace. As I mentioned yesterday, we are about two weeks ahead of the average seventh named storm formation date.
Environmental conditions are marginal for its development, and models continue to show it following a path very similar to Fred's, at least for the next few days. NHC maintains it as a low-end tropical storm through the five-day forecast period, which is line with the majority of the model guidance.
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