01 August 2011

Tropical Storm Emily becomes 5th named storm of the season

Based on extensive aircraft reconnaissance today, the disturbance near the Leeward Islands was upgraded to TS Emily.  The intensity is 35kts and 1006mb, and it's located 50 miles WSW of Dominica (the island between Guadeloupe and Martinique).  I have a radar loop available at http://einstein.atmos.colostate.edu/~mcnoldy/tropics/emily11/Emily_01-02Aug11.gif

There are tropical storm warning issued for the southern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Dominican Republic.  The latest watches and warnings can be found here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0511W5+gif/

The official forecast brings the storm over Hispaniola on Wednesday, the Bahamas on Thursday-Friday, and into south Florida on Saturday as a minimal hurricane.  As usual though, intensity forecasts are prone to errors, so this will be watched very closely, but the interaction with Hispaniola should limit the intensity.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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