05 August 2011

Can Emily make a comeback?

The remnants of Emily's low-level circulation have cleared Hispaniola and Cuba, and the "center" is now located just north of central Cuba's coast (south of Andros Island, Bahamas).  There is deep convection associated with the system, but it's displaced to the east.  I added a red X to the visible satellite image below to highlight where the surface circulation is located as of this writing since it's quite far from obvious.  I also added estimated locations over the past two days to give you an idea of where this ill-defined circulation has traveled.
In its current state, it's not very threatening... capable of some localized flash flooding at the worst.  But it is back over very warm water, and in a low-shear environment, so it's too early to completely let your guard down yet if you're in FL.  Models tend to not develop this system much anymore, since it needs to undergo genesis all over again.  Since this is not a deep coherent vortex, its motion isn't simply governed by the deep-layer mean flow; it could continue to sneak westward along the north coast of Cuba and enter the Gulf of Mexico.  Simple barotropic models (e.g. LBAR, BAMS, BAMM, BAMD) do actually bring the system south of FL and then recurve it back into the west coast of the FL peninsula in about 3 days.  However, the intensity should still be minimal, but FL can expect to get wet this weekend.  The long-range radar loop from Miami can be found here: http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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