18 August 2011

One disturbance nearing Central America, one in far eastern Atlantic

The easterly wave that we've been watching since it left the African coast back on Aug 10th is now located just 200 miles due east of the Honduras/Nicaragua border.  It is still not a Depression, but is visually very close (low-level winds appear to be circling in to it in all quadrants, and it has persistent centralized deep convection).  An aircraft is flying through the system as I type this, which will determine if it has reached TD or TS status.  It is forecast to continue its westward course, bringing it into Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday... most likely as a Tropical Storm.  The next name on the list is Harvey.

Elsewhere, the easterly wave that exited Africa on the 14th is now centered near 40W (about 900 miles west of the Cape Verde islands).  This is a very large circulation, though lacking convection and organization.
Global forecast models indicate that this system will develop and be in the vicinity of Cuba and southern Florida by the middle of next week.  It's a long way out, but worth keeping a close eye on.  The following plot from Univ of Miami (http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/personal/smajumdar/predict/) shows the possible locations (from 20 members of the GEFS ensemble) of this disturbance next Thursday evening.  Keep in mind that this is only showing an indication of track, not intensity, and from one model.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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