10 July 2005

Dennis makes US landfall, TD5 forms in deep tropics...

At about 1930Z today, Dennis made landfall very near Pensacola, FL as a 
CAT3 storm, having weakened from a strong CAT4 just hours prior to 
landfall.  So far, no US deaths are attrbuted to Dennis, but 32 have 
occurred in Haiti and Cuba.  There have been 7 tornadoes reported in 
association with Dennis, and more are likely tomorrow.  For the latest 
watches and warnings, visit http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/

As of 03Z on 7/11, TS Dennis was located inland over central Alabama at 
32.3N 87.8W and tracking NNW at 14kts.  The central pressure is up to 
980mb and the maximum sustained winds are 55kts.  Further weakening is 
expected as time goes on, but the threat for flash flooding and 
tornadoes still exists from the southeast US all the way up through the 
Ohio River Valley.  Steering flow is forecast to become very weak in the 
coming days, so the moisture associated with Dennis could linger and 
cause significant flooding.

Going back a few days to July 6, a very potent tropical wave exited the 
African coast (the same one I referred to in my 7/7 Tropical Update). 
It was just upgraded to TD5 based on satellite presentation.  It's at 
10.8N 42.9W... about 1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles... and 
tracking W at 10kts.  Estimated intensity is 25kts and 1010mb.  Gradual 
intensification is forecast, reaching the Lesser Antilles by Thursday or 
so.  If this becomes a Tropical Storm, its name will be Emily.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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