15 July 2005

Emily weakens north of Venezuela...

Emily has undergone some major changes in the past 24 hours, both up and 
down.  Since yesterday's update, it reached a peak intensity of 115kts 
and 952mb (CAT4), and is now down to 90kts and 969mb (CAT2).  This 
weakening is seemingly due to a combination of two primary ingredients: 
encountering a region of dry mid-level air while undergoing an eyewall 
replacement cycle.  Hurricanes are quite vulnerable while an eyewall 
replacement is occurring (think of a hermit crab when it moves from a 
small shell to a larger shell!), and as such, disruptions in atmospheric 
conditions can make a big impact.  That said, it should recover within 
12 hours or so and reintensify to a CAT3-4 for landfall on the Yucatan.

At 21Z today, Hurricane Emily was located at 14.7N 72.8W and tracking W 
at 17kts.  Intensity is 90kts and 969mb as mentioned earlier.  Hurricane 
Warnings are posted for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.  It is forecast 
to hit the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday afternoon as a major hurricane, 
then travel across the VERY WARM Gulf for a couple days before hitting 
near the US/Mexico border on Tuesday night, also most likely as a major 
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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