12 July 2005

TD5 becomes TS Emily...

At 03Z today, TD5 showed sufficient signs of organization to be upgraded 
to TS Emily, the fifth named storm of the season.  Conditions are 
favorable for gradual intensification, and as time goes on, they will 
favor more rapid intensification.  Emily is located about 500 miles east 
of Barbados and cruising W at 17kts.  Satellite estimated intensity as 
of 15Z is 45kts and 1000mb.  A Hurricane Watch is in effect for Barbados 
and the Windward Islands.  (You can find a reference map of the 
Caribbean Sea at http://www.mcwar.org/tropics/caribbean_map.pdf)

The appearance certainly suggests that Emily is on an intensification 
trend, with very healthy outflow aloft, robust banding features, and 
persistent deep convection over the center.  SSTs in its immediate 
future are 28 - 28.5C, and vertical shear is basically non-existent.

The latest forecast track takes Emily over the Windward Islands, and 
through the central Caribbean, south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola 
(notice this is shifted south a bit from yesterday's forecast track).  
As far as intensity goes, this is likely to become a hurricane in the 
next 12-18 hours, and a major hurricane (CAT3) by Friday.  Given this 
track through the central Caribbean, it seems inevitable that it will 
enter the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in yet another US or Mexico landfall 
in about a week from now.

There is a very nice time series of Emily's evolution from the coast of 
Africa to the present at 

As I mentioned yesterday, there's another active tropical wave just 
behind Emily at about 14N 30W.  It's moving W at 10kts and already has a 
1010mb Low embedded within it.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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