13 July 2005

Emily hitting the Windward Islands...

Emily has not gotten organized as quickly as forecast, and is still a 
tropical storm.  However, the past few hours have seen explosive 
convection over the center, and that could be the trigger to 
intensifying into the second hurricane of the season.

TS Emily is presently very near Tobago, and headed for Grenada.  A 
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Windward Islands, Tobago, 
Trinidad, and parts of the eastern Venezuela coast.  Intensity as 
measured by aircraft is 50kts and 1003mb.  It's tracking W at 16kts.

The long-term forecast takes the storm south of Jamaica and into the 
Yucatan Peninsula by early next week as a major hurricane.  This means 
that in about one week from now, it could be making landfall somewhere 
in the Tampico to Houston area.  People in the region should be watching 
the progress of Emily very closely.

The strong tropical wave behind Emily that I've been mentioning remains 
poorly organized, and is not immediately targeted for formation.  The 
wave is located at about 15N 35W.  If it does "go", it will become TD6.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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