19 September 2004

Jeanne strengthens, Karl a major hurricane, TD13 forms...

Since exiting the coast of Hispaniola as a small disorganized Depression, Jeanne is now a much bigger, more organized Tropical Storm.  However, despite the improvement, there is still minimal convection near the inner core, so intensification will hold off until that occurs.  As of 21Z today, TS Jeanne was located at 24.5N 72.3W and heading. Winds are 45kts and MSLP is 996mb.  Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next 3 days, followed by weakening due to increasing vertical wind shear.  The forecast track keeps Jeanne well away from the US.

Karl was upgraded to the 5th major hurricane of the season at 03Z today, and is now a CAT4 storm.  Environmental conditions are basically ideal, and maximum sustained winds are estimated at 115kts, and the MSLP at 944mb.  It is forecast to reach 125kts, same intensity as Charlie and Frances at their peak intensities.  The storm is located at 17.0N 44.0W and tracking WNW at 9kts.  This large hurricane should begin heading due north through a weakness in the subtropical ridge within a day or so.

At 21Z today, TD13 formed immediately east of Karl (about 850 miles). Latest intensity is 30kts and 1004mb.  Due to the proximity to Karl, the system will suffer from strong vertical shear, and the steering flow is virually identical, so the forecast track is very similar.  If and when this Depression gets named, it will be TS Lisa.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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