Ivan is now just 120 miles from the coast, or about 8.5 hours (21Z fix had it at 28.4N 88.3W). Heavy rainbands have moved onshore, and the eyewall will move onshore in perhaps 6 hours. The exact location of landfall will not matter since this is such a large strong storm. However, Mobile is forecast to take the center of the eye during the early morning hours on Thursday. Buoys in the gulf ahead of Ivan have reported waves up to 50 feet high. Recent aircraft recon suggests that Ivan is intensifying. The pressure has fallen noticeably, and the objective satellite techniques all show an intensifying trend. But as of now, the maximum sustained winds are held constant at 115kts. MSLP is 933mb. Ivan should make landfall as a CAT4 hurricane, and unfortunately, that means the damage will be widespread and extreme. Storm surge flooding, rainfall flooding, tornadoes, and hurricane-related winds will result in a very scary night tonight as he makes landfall. Jeanne made landfall on Puerto Rico at about 18Z as a strengthening Tropical Storm. Current intensity is 60kts and 991mb. It is expected to exit the island, then head WNW past Hispaniola then into the Bahamas. It's presently at 18.4N 66.5W and tracking WNW at 8kts. This motion is expected to continue. Again, residents along the southeast US coast should keep a close eye on Jeanne in the coming week. The strong tropical wave I mentioned yesterday has become better organized, and is presently at about 10N 28W (south of the Cape Verdes). It's moving WNW at about 16kts and has a 1010mb Low associated with it. Given the warm SSTs and low shear, this should become TD12 within 18-24 hours. The next name on the list is Karl.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
No comments:
Post a Comment