15 September 2004

Gulf Coast prepares for a hard hit, Puerto Rico takes a direct hit...

Ivan is now just 120 miles from the coast, or about 8.5 hours (21Z fix
had it at 28.4N 88.3W).   Heavy rainbands have moved onshore, and the
eyewall will move onshore in perhaps 6 hours.  The exact location of
landfall will not matter since this is such a large strong storm. 
However, Mobile is forecast to take the center of the eye during the
early morning hours on Thursday.  Buoys in the gulf ahead of Ivan have
reported waves up to 50 feet high.

Recent aircraft recon suggests that Ivan is intensifying.  The pressure
has fallen noticeably, and the objective satellite techniques all show
an intensifying trend.  But as of now, the maximum sustained winds are
held constant at 115kts.  MSLP is 933mb.  Ivan should make landfall as a
CAT4 hurricane, and unfortunately, that means the damage will be
widespread and extreme.  Storm surge flooding, rainfall flooding,
tornadoes, and hurricane-related winds will result in a very scary night
tonight as he makes landfall.

Jeanne made landfall on Puerto Rico at about 18Z as a strengthening
Tropical Storm.  Current intensity is 60kts and 991mb.  It is expected
to exit the island, then head WNW past Hispaniola then into the
Bahamas.  It's presently at 18.4N 66.5W and tracking WNW at 8kts.  This
motion is expected to continue.  Again, residents along the southeast US
coast should keep a close eye on Jeanne in the coming week.

The strong tropical wave I mentioned yesterday has become better
organized, and is presently at about 10N 28W (south of the Cape
Verdes).  It's moving WNW at about 16kts and has a 1010mb Low associated
with it.  Given the warm SSTs and low shear, this should become TD12
within 18-24 hours.  The next name on the list is Karl.  

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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