24 September 2004

Ivan makes another landfall, Jeanne heading for Florida, Karl becomes extratropical, and Lisa weakens...

At about 02Z this morning, Ivan made another US landfall, this time as a
Tropical Storm just south of Lake Charles, LA.  It has since moved
inland over TX and has produced 3-4" of rain, but quite insignificant
compared to its first US landfall.  As far as I know, the death toll
associated with Ivan is only around 120 people in the Caribbean and US

Jeanne, on the other hand, has been terribly deadly, with about 1200
fatalities reported so far, and another 1300 still missing in Hispaniola
alone (mass graves have been dug for the human and animal corpses, so
it's BAD).  She has now completed a small loop and is heading west
directly toward the Florida peninsula.  Now that forward motion has
resumed and shear has lessened, it should intensify steadily.

As of 21Z, Jeanne was located at 26.4N 73.5W and tracking W at 10kts. 
Maximum sustained winds are 85kts and MSLP is 965mb.  As shear decreases
and SST increases, it is forecast to strengthen to a CAT3 storm by
landfall... expected Sunday morning between Cape Canaveral and West Palm

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the central Bahamas.  Tropical
Storm Watch for most of the western FL peninsula.  Hurricane Watch for
the extreme northern FL and GA coast.  And Hurricane Warnings for the
western Bahamas and almost all of the eastern FL peninsula.  Nearly 1/2
million evacuations have already been ordered on the FL peninsula...

The final advisory was written on Karl this afternoon, nearly at 50N! 
He has become absorbed by the mid-latitude trough and is now a potent
extratropical storm destined to give Iceland a rough ride in a couple

Lisa has been a Tropical Depression since the update I sent out
yesterday, and that's entirely due to strong northerly shear.  There has
been active deep convection, but none of it is over the low-level
circulation!  The interaction with the strong tropical wave has
basically ended, with Lisa the victorious vortex.  Still way out at
about 15N 45W, she's forecast to head quickly to the north as a strong
TS, folling almost in Karl's footsteps.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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