From Jonathan Vigh:
Early this morning, the NHC wrote the last advisory on Gaston as the system transitioned to extratropical status. Healthy winds will be experienced to the right of the storm as it passes south of Newfoundland into the open Atlantic. A couple of disturbances have come off of Africa in the past couple days. One of these passed over the Cape Verde Islands and is moving into the Atlantic at about 18N. The other has just come off of Africa and is much further south, around 9N. Both have a chance of developing, but the smart money is probably on the southern system. If it develops, it will be named Ivan. Frances now poses a major threat to the southern East Coast of the United States. The storm is currently passing just to the north of the Turks and Caicos Islands, and is forecast to pass through the Central Bahamas on a track towards Florida's east coast. The storm is still being steered by a strong ridge to the north, and right now, most of the forecast models keep the ridge in a configuration that would force the storm to make landfall somewhere in Florida. The forecast is still uncertain, and depends somewhat on a trough over the Western U.S. A stronger, deeper trough would likely strengthen the ridge north of Frances, forcing her to make landfall further south and west. A weaker, faster trough could weaken the ridge and allow Frances to drift further north before landfall -- this scenario would keep Northern Florida, Georgia, and even South Carolina at risk. Potential landfall is still at least 72 hours away (as soon as Saturday morning), but it is looking more and more likely that Florida will bear the brunt of this storm. Residents of Georgia and even South Carolina should still closely monitor the progress of this storm however, because it would not take much of a turn to bring the storm close enough for ill effects to occur. All people in the potential risk area should remember that the storm is not a point -- at landfall, Frances' hurricane-force winds could extend out up to 120 mile from the center. This means that wherever she hits, a large portion of coast will be affected. As in previous days, very interesting changes to the inner core have been occurring, with eyewall cycles taking place roughly every 12 hours. As of this afternoon, it appears that another eyewall cycle was completing, leaving a large 30 nm eye. The eye will probably contract soon, potentially strengthening the storm. The outflow is excellent, with two well defined outflow channels to the north and south. The storm has been modifying its own environment -- the upper level low to the west of Frances has been filling and weakening with time, allowing the storm to stay in a favorable low shear environment. Thus, no external influences are likely to cause any drastic weakening of the storm before landfall. If anything the storm could strengthen as it passes over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and is very likely to make landfall with at least cat. 3 intensity. To have two cat. 4 hurricanes make landfall in the same state within a month would be unprecedented. Sadly, areas that were walloped by Charley, such as the Orlando area (which had at least $3 billion worth of damage), may experience even more devastation from Frances. Most of the Florida coast is very populated, so it would be very difficult for this storm not to produce a tremendous amount of damage, possibly comparable to the damage produced by Hurricane Andrew. Even the Tampa Bay area could experience hurricane conditions under some track scenarios. Anyone living in main part of Florida or southeast Georgia should closely monitor this storm and keep an ear to local officials for actionable statements. I have prepared a Frances-themed resource page with links to local radars, satellite loops, and other storm information (some of these are quite technical), which can be accessed at: http://inte099182.halls.colostate.edu/~vigh/weather/hurricanes/frances2004.htm
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