14 September 2004

Ivan still a CAT4, TD11 becomes TS Jeanne...

At 06Z today, Ivan was downgraded to a still-powerful CAT4 hurricane as
it entered the Gulf of Mexico.  It now has a very large eye and is
heading for a patch of high oceanic heat content which could allow it to
intensify yet again.

The 21Z position was 24.2N 86.6W and motion was NNW at 8kts.  Maximum
sustained winds are 120kts and MSLP is 929mb.  The forecast is slowly
becoming more certain as it gets closer, and the region between New
Orleans and western FL panhandle look like the highest risk areas now. 
The official NHC forecast takes it into Mobile, AL as a CAT3 storm in
the early morning hours on Thursday.  Hurricane Warnings cover a stretch
of land from Grande Isle, LA to Apalachicola, FL, and evacuations have
already begun in many places contained in that warning.  Personal
intuition tells me that New Orleans should be especially cautious.

At 15Z today, TD11 was upgraded to TS Jeanne, the 10th named storm of
the season.  It crossed directly over Guadeloupe as a strengthening TD,
so conditions wouldn't have been TOO bad there.

As of 21Z, she's at 16.8N 63.9W and tracking WNW at 9kts.  Intensity is
50kts and 998mb.  The forecast is for gradual intensification, passing
directly over Puerto Rico as a hurricane, then skipping north of
Dominican Republic and into the Bahamas in 5 days.  Residents from FL to
NC should be watching Jeanne closely.

Elsewhere, there is an impressive tropical wave in the deep tropics near
25W.  This circulation will be monitored for future development.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

No comments:

Post a Comment