Models have been hinting at something developing in the western Caribbean for a few days now, and the time and place fits in well with climatology. The next name on the list is Patty.
This map below shows the historical formation locations during the first ten days of November, and the western Caribbean certainly stands out as a hot spot.
Tracks of low pressure systems from the American (left) and European (right) model ensembles are shown below out through the next ten days. The European model ensemble has not done so well with genesis this year, so I'd put much more weight on the more bullish American model's ensemble.
That one shows development of a coherent low pressure system on Tuesday-Wednesday next week, then a general track toward the north with some intensification. The spread in solutions becomes quite large even in one week (next Friday), so it's too soon to speculate about what happens beyond that.
What we can learn from this is that there is a consistent signal in the models for something to develop in the western Caribbean by next weekend. We will need to watch this closely because conditions are more than ample to support a strong hurricane. The ocean heat content averaged over the Caribbean is still near-record high and far above any other year except for 2023.
It's important to not let our guard down at this late point in hurricane season... it's not over yet. There is no shortage of examples of November hurricanes -- just in the last 25 years there have been 17 of them, including 6 major hurricanes: Lenny (1999), Michelle (2001), Paloma (2008), Otto (2016), Eta (2020), Iota (2020).
There have been 7 names retired from November hurricanes: Lenny (1999), Michelle (2001), Noel (2007), Paloma (2008), Otto (2016), Eta (2020), Iota (2020).
Notice something about those two lists? All six major hurricanes that occurred during November over the past 25 years were impactful enough to have their names retired. Hopefully whatever comes of this system of interest does not get added to that list.
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