Milton is still a tropical storm in the western Gulf of Mexico as of late Sunday morning, but is very close to reaching hurricane intensity. It will track eastward across the Gulf of Mexico and reach the Florida peninsula late Wednesday; however, significant impacts will begin before that.
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| Overlay of all five track forecast cones from NHC spanning when TD14 first formed on Saturday morning through late Sunday morning. The cone only represents where the center of the storm may track with 2/3 probability; it does not show where impacts will be experienced. |
The forecasts from the models and NHC have been fairly stable (not varying much from run to run), which continues to paint a dire picture for many parts of already-storm-ravaged western Florida. There is strong agreement on a track toward the central part of the peninsula, with a landfall late Wednesday, and at an intensity of at least a Category 3 hurricane.
Not only is there relatively light vertical wind shear in the Gulf right now, the water temperature is still record-breaking warm. And it's not just warm in terms of the sea surface temperature, but also through a depth as measured by ocean heat content. High ocean heat content provides a hurricane with a constant source of fuel and makes it much harder to upwell cooler water from below which could weaken the storm. This will help Milton to rapidly intensify and reach a higher peak intensity.
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| https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/ohc/ |
The Sunday 11am forecast from NHC brings it to nearly Category 4 intensity at landfall on Wednesday afternoon/evening. There is too much uncertainty to know exactly where landfall will be, but forecasts have been focused between Tampa and Fort Myers. For most hazards, the exact landfall location doesn't matter, but for peak storm surge it does. There is a world of difference between being just north of the eye with offshore winds and just south of the eye with onshore winds. Prepare assuming you're going to be on the bad side.
Preparations should be completed by the time tropical storm conditions could arrive, which for this storm looks like early Wednesday morning along much of the peninsula.
In addition to the devastating wind and storm surge impacts from a forecast like that, the entire peninsula is already experiencing widespread heavy rain today and that will continue until the hurricane passes through on Thursday morning. The map below shows the five-day outlook of flash flood risk.
It's still slightly too early get watches and warnings for Florida, but they could start being issued as early as Sunday evening, certainly by Monday morning. Be prepared to see storm surge warnings with ominous peak values on parts of the west coast of the peninsula. Many of these areas are still cleaning up after Helene's storm surge, but this is very likely going to be worse. Don't wait to leave if told to.
Elsewhere, Kirk and Leslie are still both hurricanes in the central Atlantic. Leslie will weaken before reaching any land, but Kirk is still forecast to reach northern Europe on Wednesday. As I brought up several times before, it will most likely not be technically "tropical" by then and it will weaken relative to what it is now, but impacts from wind and storm surge will still be felt.
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