Tropical Atlantic Update: Milton explosively intensifies in western Gulf, warnings issued for Florida

07 October 2024

Milton explosively intensifies in western Gulf, warnings issued for Florida

In one of the most explosive rounds of intensification in recorded history, Milton's peak winds increased from 90 mph at 2am EDT on Monday to 175 mph at 2pm then 180 mph at 5pm. It went from a Category 1 to a Category 5 hurricane in just nine hours. This satellite animation reveals the minimal vertical wind shear as evident by the thin whispy ice clouds drifting around as well as a pinhole eye that is just 8 miles in diameter. Record warm water temperatures also played a big role in facilitating this.

With 180 mph peak winds, there have only been five other Atlantic hurricanes that had higher peak intensities: Allen 1980 (190), Labor Day 1935 (185), Gilbert 1988 (185), Dorian 2019 (185), and Wilma 2005 (185), There have been three others that tied the 180 mph mark.

The storm's intensity and central pressure were very well measured throughout the day by multiple reconnaissance flights by both NOAA and the Air Force. It has also been in radar range from Sabancuy, Mexico, and its tiny and intense inner core shows up very well from there too.

https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/

As of 5pm EDT on Monday, Milton is a Category 5 hurricane (the season's second) located just north of the Yucatan peninsula. It still has two more days over water until it reaches the Florida peninsula on Wednesday evening. Those peak winds will decrease somewhat as wind shear picks up closer to landfall, but that absolutely does not diminish the threat it poses. Any preparations and evacuations across Florida should be well underway and wrapped up ASAP, or at the latest, before Wednesday morning when tropical storm conditions could arrive.

The storm surge forecasts for the Tampa area and surrounding coastline are catastrophically high, with 10-15 feet possible in the central part of the peninsula. Do not hesitate any longer to evacuate if told to -- this is as dire as it gets.

The afternoon suite of HTI graphics is shown below and you can always find the most recent at https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical#hti which are zoomable and interactive.

Also, don't forget that the Florida peninsula is skinny -- the hurricane will quickly cross over to the east side, bringing hurricane conditions and dangerous storm surge there as well.

Milton will undoubtedly join other October "M" Category 5 hurricanes in retirement: Mitch (1998), Matthew (2016), and Michael (2018). Milton was actually the replacement name for Michael in this list.

And just to keep tabs on Kirk and Leslie, Kirk has transitioned to an extratropical cyclone and will reach northern France on Wednesday, while Leslie is still maintaining hurricane intensity in the central Atlantic. It is forecast to weaken this week and be out of the picture this weekend.

Elsewhere across the basin, there's an easterly wave still over Africa that NHC is giving a 30% chance of formation once it exits the continent, and a disturbance near south Florida with a 10% chance as it heads toward the northeast.