Gustav becomes first hurricane of the season.

After coming within 20 miles of Cape Hatteras on Tuesday at 21Z as a
strong 984mb Tropical Storm, he has since begun to rapidly move away
from the coast.  And, as anticipated, the baroclinic assist he's getting
has allowed him to intensify to a hurricane, the first of the season. 
At 15Z, he was located at 38.6N 69.7W and tracking NE at 20kts.  Maximum
sustained winds are 65kts and the MSLP is 975mb.  The forecast is for
continued acceleration to the NE, slamming into Nova Scotia and
Newfoundland on Thursday, with little change in strength, until 2-3 days
out when he turns extratropical and is absorbed by the trough.  As if to
mimic the October 1991 "Perfect Storm" scenario on a weaker scale, the
NHC states that "SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT BAROCLINIC
CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.  GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THIS DEVELOPING
NON-TROPICAL LOW AND BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM AS
IT CROSSES NOVA SCOTIA AND NEWFOUNDLAND".  By the way, the last time we
had to wait until Sept 11 for a hurricane was 1941, so yes, the season
is behind schedule.

The area of disturbed weather in the Gulf that I mentioned yesterday is
becoming better organized.  It has a broad area of vorticity and a Low
associated with it.  This is biggest area of concern in the Atlantic now
for the US, as anything that develops in the Gulf is guaranteed to make
landfall somewhere.

The tropical wave that has been marching across the Atlantic since last
week is now at 18N 52W and tracking W at 10kts.  Conditions remain
unfavorable for development.

A tropical wave at 19N 31W now has a 1011mb Low with it, along with a
nice low-level circulation and some moderate convection.  

Besides the obvious significance of this day, I recalled that this same
day last year had Hurricane Erin sitting not far off the northeast US
coast.  Today, at the same time and nearly same place, Hurricane Gustav
is there.  See the attached image for a comparison.  Although the
visible appearance differs slightly, the central pressures of the two
storms are nearly identical.  Just a strange coincidence I thought I'd
bring to your attention.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.