At about 8pm Wednesday night, Edouard finally made landfall on Daytona Beach, FL as a 35kt TS. There was barely any convection, so it was basically a minor wind event. Since then, he has continued to drift WSW across the Florida peninsula, weaken to a TD, and has re-entered the Gulf. Given the current state of the storm and the very strong vertical shear, chances for redevelopment are slim to none. At 15Z today, TD Edouard was located at 28.7N 83.0W and moving WSW at 7kts. Elsewhere, there's a broad area of persistent convection in the northwest Gulf, with an embedded 1009mb Low at 27N 96W. Conditions are favorable for this to develop, but its proximity to land might inhibit that. It does have an anticyclone aloft, and a fair amount of relative vorticity, so it's more than the average blob of convection over warm water. Also, a tiny vortex that I've been watching since Tuesday morning is becoming more interesting now. Located at about 20N 42W, it's got a well-defined low-level circulation (1016mb Low), but lacks deep convection. Although the shear is currently fairly high (35kts), it should lessen significantly by the weekend, allowing the system to perhaps get better organized as it tracks west at 10kts. Lastly, the tropical wave exiting Africa now is one of the more impressive ones of the season. All indicators I typically look at are favorable for it to develop fairly far east. The convection is centered over about 12N 12W. FYI, the next names on deck are Fay, Gustav, and Hanna, not that I'm anticipating that all three of these items of interest will become named storms. The climatological peak of activity in the Atlantic is Sept 10, so perhaps this flurry of action will help verify that.
Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.
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