03 September 2002

Dolly still a Tropical Storm, Edouard forms and sits off of Florida coast.

Dolly never made it to hurricane strength, despite how likely it looked
on Friday morning.  It seems that she ingested a lot of dry air from the
Sahara, and combined with a slight dip in SSTs, intensification was
thwarted.  However, she has maintained TS status and has leveled off in
terms of intensity.  At 15Z today, she was located at 21.5N 53.0W
(approximately 1100km away from the northern Leeward Islands) and
tracking N at 12kts.  This means that she has begun recurving, and will
probably not make it any further west than 55W.  Maximum sustained winds
are at 45kts with 1000mb MSLP.

TD5 formed on Sunday evening just 115 miles east of Daytona Beach, FL. 
At 06Z on 9/2, it was upgraded to TS Edouard, based on virtually every
tool we have: aircraft recon, ground-based radar, surface observations,
and satellite imagery.  He formed in an environment of moderate westerly
shear and meager steering flow, and that has changed little since then. 
At 15Z today, Edouard was at 30.3N 78.6W and stationary.  Winds were
55kts and central pressure was 1003mb and this may be his peak
intensity.  The convection is diminishing and the westerly shear is
increasing, so although he's forecast to loop around and hit the Florida
peninsula on Thursday morning near Daytona Beach, the intensity should
not be alarming (despite the rather warm SSTs he's over).  If he behaves
as expected, he should be a moderate TD or a weak TS at that point. 
There is a Tropical Storm Watch in effect for parts of the northeastern
Florida peninsula.

The only other item to mention is a well-defined surface circulation at
about 18.5N 30.0W.  Although the low-level vortex (1013mb Low) shows up
very well on VIS imagery, there is little convection and the shear is
brutal.  Westerly shear is already 40kts and will be increasing to
50-60kts in the next day or so.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

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