08 September 2002

Fay and TD7 dissipate, STD8 forms southwest of Bermuda, Cape Verde wave still being watched.

The last advisory was written on Fay at 15Z yesterday as she dissipated
over central TX.

Tiny TD7 was short-lived and dissipated just 24 hours after forming.  It
moved WNW a bit and approached the immense circulation of the next storm
to be discussed.

Subtropical Depression 8 formed at 15Z today from the large area of
disturbed weather near the West Indes.  As of 15Z, the center is at
28.7N 70.4W (about 570km SW of Bermuda) and tracking N at 10kts. 
Intensity was estimated at 30kts and 1010mb, but an aircraft will
investigate the system later today... it is suspected that it's stronger
than initial estimates.  The forecast is for gradual strengthening and
for a curve to the NW, approaching the southern NC coast, but a
mid-latitude trough should come to the rescue by Tuesday morning and
whisk it out to sea.  If the trough should happen to bypass it, landfall
is almost certain because the next trough would be a few days away.

The tropical wave near 12N 33W now has a 1010mb Low embedded in it and
is still tracking W at 15kts.  The short-term environment is unfavorable
owing to high shear to its immediate north.  However, since the wave has
held together this long, there's reason to suspect that as soon as it
finds more favorable conditions, it will take advantage of them.

Please visit my tropical Atlantic headquarters.

No comments:

Post a Comment