Tropical Storm Lorenzo, the twelfth named storm of the season, formed from a tropical wave on Monday morning. As of Monday afternoon, it's centered about 1200 miles west of Cabo Verde.
As you can see in the satellite loop above, it is not very organized... and conditions will not improve too much for it. Unlike the last Lorenzo in 2019 that reached Category 5 intensity in the eastern Atlantic, it's unlikely this will reach minimal hurricane intensity as it turns north into the cooler north Atlantic by the weekend.
Also, since my previous post on Wednesday, Jerry dissipated on Saturday afternoon, and if you blinked, you missed Subtropical Storm Karen which was around for a day (Friday) just west of the Azores. The only interesting tidbit about Karen is that it was the northernmost named storm formation on record (44.4°N).
For the ACE update, that's at about 91% of average for the date. The season has now had 12 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes... the average by now is 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes.
Elsewhere, there is a signal in the long-range models showing potential development from a late-season African wave. The wave is presently exiting the continent and the general consensus so far is for a track through the deep tropics and development this coming weekend. If this comes to fruition, it could reach the Lesser Antilles around Monday (20th) and then enter the Caribbean Sea. The next name on the list is Melissa.
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