The African easterly wave I referenced in Monday's post is still showing up in the model guidance, though taking a bit longer to develop. The ensembles generally suggest the wave reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday then perhaps a chance of intensification in the Caribbean.
The three maps below show track forecasts of the potential next system from the European (top), American (middle), and Google Deepmind (bottom) ensembles... all of them end one week from now. The background shading is the sea surface temperature. You can easily see varying degrees of bullishness on developing this wave, and within the Caribbean, the intensity is all over the place -- but the potential for a hurricane in the eastern Caribbean mid-week is there. The next name on the list is Melissa.
Now that there's a lull in the activity, I'll share some preliminary season-to-date materials.
First is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy, which I share frequently throughout the season. That's at 91% of average for the date and will drop to 88% of average by next Wednesday if nothing else develops by then. The ACE was only above-average for a couple weeks at the end of August.
Next is a map of all 12 tropical cyclones so far this season, with their peak intensity, minimum pressure, and ACE contribution listed on the right. It is really striking how the storms have so far stayed out over the ocean for the most part. Of course, that may not hold true for the rest of the season.
Finally, some verification statistics for track and intensity forecasts made by the National Hurricane Center -- these are averaged over all twelve storms as well. The track errors have been right around average for all lead times, from 1 to 5 days. The 4-day (96-hour) track errors are just slightly above average. Intensity errors, on the other hand, have been decidedly above average this season so far.
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