Almost nothing has changed since my previous post on Tuesday, but I'll provide the few updates there are regarding Melissa. Melissa is still a tropical storm, and is still in the central Caribbean and is barely moving. The extremely warm and deep waters of the Caribbean near Jamaica will provide an endless fuel source with no opportunity to upwell cooler water. The vertical wind shear which has been inhibiting intensification so far is quickly decreasing. All signs point to rapid -- or "explosive" -- intensification very soon.
On Friday afternoon, Tropical Storm Melissa is intensifying and is forecast to become the season's fifth hurricane shortly. It has barely moved in the past couple of days, and is only forecast to drift to the west toward Jamaica over the next 3-4 days. This will undoubtedly result in a significant disaster in Jamaica, but also further east in Haiti and perhaps even the Dominican Republic. A Category 4 or 5 hurricane landfall is bad enough, but to have it last for a few days is much worse (remember Dorian over the western Bahamas in 2019?), and the rainfall and resulting flash floods and mudslides in mountainous areas will be devastating. I have long updating radar loops from Jamaica available at https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/radar/.
The track forecast takes Melissa over Jamaica on Tuesday, then eastern Cuba and the Bahamas on Wednesday. The multi-day stall will be definitively ended as a deep trough sweeps in across the eastern U.S. and picks the storm up and accelerates it off to the northeast. As of now, hurricane watches are in effect for Jamaica and Haiti's Tiburon Peninsula.
Assuming Melissa becomes a major hurricane (Category 3+), it would not be out of place at all historically. Below is a map showing tracks of the twenty major hurricanes that have been in the Caribbean Sea during October, going back to 1920. The most recent were Delta (2020), Matthew (2016), and Sandy (2012). There have been five Category 5 October Caribbean hurricanes: Matthew (2016), Wilma (2005), Mitch (1998), Hattie (1961), Unnamed (1924). They all made landfall eventually of course because it's virtually impossible to escape the Caribbean without hitting land.
The season's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is at 90% of average for the date, but that's about to change quite a bit as Melissa intensifies. Based on NHC's current intensity forecast, 2025's ACE will cross above the average line on Monday.
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