Hurricane Kirk strengthens, Tropical Storm Leslie strengthens, Gulf still unsettled

I intentionally mimicked the post's title from two days ago because almost nothing has changed since then.  Kirk has intensified more as expected, becoming the season's 3rd major hurricane on Thursday (it's not impossible that it clips Category 5 intensity today).  TD13 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Leslie on Wednesday night and it's still following in Kirk's footsteps. And, the mess in the Gulf of Mexico is still a mess with a very uncertain future.

On Friday morning, Kirk is a Category 4 hurricane located about 1000 miles northeast of the Windward Islands.

It will remain over the open ocean for the next 5-6 days and then will approach the British Isles and northern France where fairly major impacts are expected.  It may not technically be classified as a hurricane anymore by then, but it will still be a potent extratropical cyclone bringing destructive winds, heavy rain, and huge surf on Thursday-Friday of next week... similar to Lorenzo in October 2019.

As I pointed out on Wednesday morning, the wave field from Kirk will spread throughout the Atlantic, reaching the U.S. east coast on Sunday, resulting in elevated high tides and increased risks of coastal flooding and erosion.

Tropical Storm Leslie is also forecast to remain in the central Atlantic, and follow right behind Kirk, with a five-day lag.  It should reach hurricane intensity this weekend, and possibly major hurricane intensity early next week.

Then, there's the broad disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico that we've been watching since at least last Thursday. There's not much to look at right now, but NHC is giving it a 40% probability of becoming a tropical cyclone within a week, and the models are still pretty scattered about what to do with it.  

There's general agreement that it will begin to drift east toward the Florida peninsula, with rainfall beginning on Sunday and lasting for days.  It could develop into a tropical or subtropical depression or storm by then, but wind will not be the primary hazard from this; it will be rain.  Several models are now showing a weak low pressure center over south or central Florida on Tuesday into Wednesday, possibly a low-end tropical storm.  The next name on the list is Milton.

The WPC's latest 7-day rainfall forecast is shown below, and it will evolve, but the entire peninsula should be paying attention to this in the coming days -- not just for the flooding potential, but the small chance that it intensifies more than models are currently showing.

For an update on the season's Accumulated Cyclone Energy, through today the 2024 season is at about 95% of average and climbing.  It will cross back above average this weekend.  In terms of storm counts, we've now had 12 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.  The average number by this date is 11, 5, and 2.

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Hurricane Kirk strengthens, Tropical Depression 13 forms, Gulf still unsettled

Kirk was upgraded to the season's 7th hurricane on Tuesday afternoon, and Invest 91L which is trailing right behind it was upgraded to Tropical Depression 13 on Wednesday morning.  The setup for development in the western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico is still messy and uncertain.  The next couple of names on the list are Leslie and Milton (Milton is a new name, replacing Michael from the 2018 season).

Kirk is forecast to become a very large and intense hurricane in the coming days, but will remain in the central Atlantic for the next five days or so.  As of Wednesday at 11am EDT, it's still a Category 1 hurricane but could easily reach Category 4 intensity (and possibly 5) over the weekend, far from land.

Something the long-range models are beginning to indicate more consistently is the potential for a significant impact in the British Isles in the middle of next week.  This will have to be watched closely... it's not unheard of to have an ex-hurricane reach that area (it may not technically be classified as a hurricane anymore, but it could be a hurricane-strength extratropical cyclone)... the best analog to Kirk in recent memory is Lorenzo in 2019. 

Also over the course of the coming week, a lot of ocean swell energy emanating from Kirk should begin to reach the U.S. east coast this weekend, resulting in elevated risks of tidal flooding and erosion.  The animation below shows a 8-day forecast of "significant wave height", and you can clearly see Kirk in the middle but its influence on the ocean will span thousands of miles.  By the end of the loop, ominously huge waves approach the British Isles.  Kirk is not a storm we will want to ignore.

Just east of Kirk is Tropical Depression 13, which will undoubtedly soon become the season's 12th named storm, Leslie.  Compared to yesterday (when it was still Invest 91L), the track guidance is showing even less of a threat to the Windward Islands, with nearly all global model ensembles now showing a north turn well before reaching the Windwards.  This example is from the GFS' ensemble.

Finally, the disturbance we've been watching in the western Caribbean continues to fester and challenge models to lock onto anything.  The NHC is still giving it a 40% probability of formation in the coming week... somewhere in the Gulf of Mexico.  The two panels here show the latest GFS (left) and EMCWF (right) track ensembles, and it's a mess.  *IF* a coherent tropical cyclone eventually develops from this, it appears it would generally move eastward toward Florida, but the northern Gulf coast should also be on alert for impacts.

Thankfully, it is not posing a wind or storm surge threat to anyone in the foreseeable future, but heavy rainfall is beginning to become a concern, and it could be directed toward Florida next week.  Again, any slight shifts could also put the northern Gulf coast on alert.

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