Soon-to-be Ernesto prompts tropical storm warnings for Leewards and Puerto Rico

The easterly wave I mentioned in Friday's post has not produced any surprises yet: it has been gradually getting organized and as of Monday morning, it is close to becoming a tropical cyclone.  It also still looks like it will pass over the Leeward Islands on Tuesday, and over/near Puerto Rico on Wednesday.  The next name on the list is Ernesto.

The feature was transitioned from Invest 98L to Potential Tropical Cyclone Five on Sunday afternoon.  Essentially, it's still an Invest (not yet a tropical depression or tropical storm), but the "PTC" designation allows the National Hurricane Center to issue watches and warnings for it because it's expected to form and impact land with at least tropical storm conditions, but it has not formed yet.  

The map below shows the current extent of tropical storm warnings from the northern Leewards over through Puerto Rico.

Directly from Friday's post, the forecast is following what looked like the most likely scenario then:

The most likely scenario presented by the models now is gradual development and intensification, a tropical storm in the vicinity of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, then a turn toward the north when it reaches 70-75°W (the longitudes of Hispaniola to eastern Cuba), followed by much more significant intensification north of the Bahamas. 

The model guidance has nudged slightly east since then, which is good news for the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and eastern Cuba, but it puts Bermuda on alert in five days or so.  The NHC forecast brings it up to just shy of Category 3 intensity by Saturday, but several models suggest it will still be intensifying by the time it gets there so NHC may bump up its intensity forecast if that persists.

Pointless trivia: Ernesto is still a name from the original six lists introduced in 1979.  It was first used in 1982 and every six years since then, so this will be its 8th time on the map.  For the most part, storms bearing this name have been benign, but two of them reached hurricane intensity and both made landfall: Ernesto 2006 made landfall in eastern Cuba and in south Florida as a tropical storm, then Ernesto 2012 made landfall in the Yucatan peninsula as a Category 2 hurricane.

Aside from PTC5, the basin looks quiet for the coming week.

 

• Visit the Tropical Atlantic Headquarters.
• Subscribe to get these updates emailed to you.
• Follow me on Bluesky and X