As of today, there are no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, and it will probably stay that way through the weekend. But by early next week that could change. An easterly wave that just left Africa on Wednesday is presently centered about 1800 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and is given a 60% probability of development by NHC within the coming week. The next name on the list is Ernesto.
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| Visible satellite image from Friday morning. The current center of the disturbance is marked by the orange X and the area of potential formation within the next 7 days is the orange oval. |
For the next 2-3 days, this disturbance will be battling dry Saharan air ahead of it and to its north. But by Monday, most models start perking up when it's about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. This time of year there are no concerns about the ocean temperature, so dry air, wind shear, and land interaction are the three factors that could put brakes on development. The first two don't look particularly hostile next week, and it won't encounter any substantial landmass until Wednesday at the earliest (Hispaniola). The two maps below show the ensemble-based tracks, color-coded by intensity, from the European model (top) and the American model (bottom) out through next Friday afternoon.
From this early look, this feature will almost certainly cross the Leeward Islands on Tuesday, though there's a lot of spread in the intensity. Clearly, the European ensemble keeps it weaker for longer, finally reaching upper tropical storm intensity near the latitude of the Bahamas on Thursday-Friday, while the American model's ensemble is far more aggressive with several members bringing it to hurricane intensity by Wednesday. Keep in mind that global model ensembles are not really great at intensity; they will generally be biased low.
For mainland U.S. interests, the earliest something would reach south Florida currently looks like Friday, if at all. As of now, there's too much spread to say much beyond that, but it doesn't appear likely.
The most likely scenario presented by the models now is gradual development and intensification, a tropical storm in the vicinity of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, then a turn toward the north when it reaches 70-75°W (the longitudes of Hispaniola to eastern Cuba), followed by much more significant intensification north of the Bahamas. We'll see if that outlook persists.
Through today's date, here's a look at the total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) by year. The value in 2024 is the 6th highest on record, behind 2005, 1933, 1980, 1926, and 1916. Certainly an impressive start to the season.
Climatologically, the steep uptick in activity is just around the corner though. We're just wrapping up the typically-quiet first 10 or so weeks of the season; the next 10 weeks are typically not so quiet.
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