An easterly wave has been embedded in dry Saharan air for the past ten days since it left the African coast on July 24. On Thursday it finally began to show signs of invigorated thunderstorm activity which indicates the dry air is now less of an influence on it. As of Friday morning, this wave, tagged as Invest 97L, is centered over the eastern tip of Cuba and is forecast to enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.
NHC is giving this a 60% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression through Sunday morning, and 90% through the next seven days. There's now very good agreement among the models that the center of this will track along the northern Cuba coast through Saturday morning, make a turn toward the northwest and enter the Gulf of Mexico midday Saturday (crossing over or near the Florida Keys), then turn north and track off the west coast of the Florida peninsula from Saturday evening through midday Monday. Beyond that, some models suggest a bit of a stall over northern Florida, while the majority track it northeastward and intensify it over the Gulf Stream.
As far as intensity forecasts go, there's good agreement on it becoming a tropical storm (its name would be Debby) on Saturday in the Gulf, with a slight chance of reaching hurricane status. Due to extremely warm water temperatures in the northeast Gulf, the possibility of rapid intensification can't be ignored.
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| Sea surface temperature (left) and the anomaly (right). https://bmcnoldy.earth.miami.edu/tropics/sectors/ |
The most significant impact from this storm, whether it becomes a tropical depression, tropical storm, or even Category 1 hurricane will be the rainfall. Hefty totals are forecast over the next five days, with the bulk coming Saturday-Monday in Florida then Monday-Wednesday in the Carolinas. There will undoubtedly be major flooding concerns all along the peninsula and then northward along the coast from there.
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| Five-day rainfall forecast, ending Wednesday morning. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=qpf |
Climatologically, the fourth named storm forms on August 15, and the second hurricane forms on August 26... so if Invest 97L does become Tropical Storm Debby OR Hurricane Debby, it will be well ahead of the normal pace.
Finally, here's a look at how this season's Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) stacks up against the average: roughly 360% of average for the date. If there's no activity through August 31, this year's total would meet up with the climatological value -- but don't hold your breath.
I will most likely not be available to write posts this weekend, so for the latest reliable information as it develops, keep an eye on the NHC website.
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