02 November 2022

Two simultaneous hurricanes... in November

As eluded to in yesterday's post, both Lisa and Martin did indeed become hurricanes on Wednesday, and they're both active at the same time.  This would not be too noteworthy in the core months of August, September, or October, but it's absolutely exceptional in November.  In fact, it's only been observed twice before: in 2001 and 1932.

Lisa is going to make landfall in Belize as a Category 1 hurricane on Wednesday afternoon, that country's first such landfall since Nana in 2020.

Once it makes landfall it will quickly weaken, but produce significant rainfall over Belize, Guatemala, and southern Mexico before what's left of it moves back out over the Bay of Campeche.  The National Hurricane Center's forecast indicates a weak tropical depression moving out into the bay, then turning back to the southeast and dissipating over Mexico.

Martin is flourishing in a brief window of favorable conditions, but it is expected to transition to a strong extratropical cyclone sometime on Thursday as it travels over increasingly cold water.

In the forecast map below. the white-filled forecast positions mean that it will not be a tropical (or subtropical) cyclone anymore. 

It's worth a quick mention that the two examples of the "cone of uncertainty" shown in this post from Lisa and Martin are identical in size and in their construction.  All storms during the entire hurricane season have the same "cone" whose size is determined by track errors over the previous five seasons.  For a full refresher on this, please visit 2022 "Cone of Uncertainty" Update & Refresher.

This mini burst of activity has provided a small boost to the season's total Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which is now at about 77% of average for the date.  Within 24 hours, both Lisa and Martin will likely no longer be contributing to the ACE tally.  In terms of storm numbers, the season has had 13 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes... the climatological average for a full season is 14, 7, and 3. 

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