03 August 2012

Renewed interest in disturbance near southern Florida

The easterly wave that exited the African coast on July 24 (see my blog entry from that day for details) never could get organized during its long trip across the Atlantic.  However, today, it's flaring up and showing some increased signs of organization.  The visible satellite image below shows the thunderstorms associated with the disturbance... scattered across the Bahamas and southern Florida. 

This system is crawling to the northwest at about 5kts, and conditions are favorable for slow additional development.  The SST is 29C, and although the vertical shear is relatively strong now (~20kts), it should decrease to under 10kts by tomorrow.  You'll be able to track it via the Miami radar:

Models have not been run on this yet, and there is not an official forecast from NHC yet, but certainly expect increased chances of very heavy rain in southern Florida and western Bahamas this weekend.

So, as the calendar rolled into August, nature repsonded with a fairly active map (including TS Ernesto in the eastern Caribbean and soon-to-be TD6 in the far eastern Atlantic):

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